Galaxy Research cut its estimate of the odds that the Clarity Act becomes law in 2026 to 30%, down from 50% less than a month ago, as the Senate races to advance the crypto market structure bill before its August recess. The firm's head of research, Alex Thorn, said the downgrade is based on the closing window of time before lawmakers leave Washington and argued the bill needs a "last-ditch effort" to reach President Donald Trump's desk. While Senate negotiators released the Clarity Act text this week, Thorn said the coalition needed to pass the bill is "not visibly in place," citing opposition from Democratic senators and just days remaining before the August recess.
Galaxy Research Cuts Clarity Act Passage Odds to 30%
Galaxy Research lowered its probability estimate for the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 from 50% to 30%. Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of research, attributed the downgrade to the narrowing legislative calendar and the absence of a visible coalition to advance the bill. "The calendar is no longer merely an obstacle. It is now the enemy," Thorn wrote, pointing to opposition from Democratic senators, uncertainty over Republican support, and limited time to begin the floor process. Thorn stated the bill requires a legislative "grand bargain" to succeed. Galaxy previously reduced its odds to 50% at the end of June due to Senate calendar concerns.
Senate Negotiators Release 616-Page Clarity Act Draft
Senate negotiators released a combined 616-page draft of the Clarity Act this week, merging work from the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees. The draft includes an ethics package and other revisions. The legislation aims to establish federal rules for digital assets and strengthen consumer protections, according to crypto industry groups.
Seven Democratic Senators Call Bill Provisions Insufficient
Seven Democratic senators stated this week that the latest version of the Clarity Act "falls short." The senators are calling for stronger provisions on ethics, consumer protections, conflicts of interest, and illicit finance. The specific senators were not named in the source.
Crypto Industry Groups Push Senate Leaders for Floor Consideration
On Friday, the Crypto Council for Innovation, Blockchain Association, and The Digital Chamber sent a joint letter to Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. The groups urged the leaders to prioritize "floor consideration" of the Clarity Act. The letter stated the legislation would establish federal rules for digital assets and strengthen consumer protections, and called on the Senate to allow the legislative process to move forward.
Procedural Timeline Emerges as Primary Legislative Obstacle
SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci stated on Thursday during a CNBC appearance that the procedure of the bill has become its biggest hurdle. "The biggest problem is the procedural one," Scaramucci said, noting lawmakers have only a narrow window before the August recess to begin the floor process. "If it gets to the floor, it's going to pass. That's my opinion," Scaramucci added. Alex Thorn echoed the urgency in his report, writing, "The time for incremental negotiations is over. The bill needs a last-ditch effort, and it needs leadership. Pass the bill!"
FAQ
What did Galaxy Research say about the Clarity Act's chances of passing?
Galaxy Research cut its estimate of the odds that the Clarity Act becomes law in 2026 to 30%, down from 50% less than a month ago. Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of research, cited the closing window of time before the August recess and the lack of a visible coalition to pass the bill.
Why are some Democratic senators opposing the Clarity Act?
Seven Democratic senators stated this week that the latest version of the Clarity Act "falls short" and are calling for stronger provisions on ethics, consumer protections, conflicts of interest, and illicit finance.
What did crypto industry groups ask Senate leaders to do?
On Friday, the Crypto Council for Innovation, Blockchain Association, and The Digital Chamber sent a joint letter to Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, pushing them to prioritize "floor consideration" of the Clarity Act before the August recess.
