Foreign Investors Accumulate 150k 10-Year Treasury Futures, Sell 210k 3-Year Contracts Year-to-Date

According to Shinhan Securities researcher Kim Chan-hee, foreign investors have net purchased 150,000 10-year Treasury futures contracts and net sold 210,000 3-year contracts year-to-date as of July 4, signaling possible curve flattening bets. The analyst noted that the diverging supply and demand directions in 3-year and 10-year futures this year likely reflect expectations of long-term interest rate stabilization after recent gains, coupled with near-term rate increases driving short-term rates higher. Alternative explanations include low-cost accumulation patterns following a rally, though analysts say meaningful signals would require confirmation of peak growth momentum and supply shifts.
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