ETH 15-minute sharp drop of 0.97%: persistent ETF outflows and high-leverage vulnerability trigger short-term selling pressure

From 13:00 to 13:15 UTC on June 24, 2026, ETH fell 0.97% in 15 minutes, with a price range of 1652.85-1672.3 USDT and an amplitude of 1.16%. The price experienced significant downward volatility, and market attention quickly heated up.

The main driver of this anomaly is the combined effect of sustained capital outflows from spot Ethereum ETFs and the high leverage fragility of the derivatives market. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs faced continuous redemption pressure in June, with a net outflow of $40.83 million on June 9, the first in three days, followed by consecutive outflows of $29.37 million and $12.77 million on June 17-18. The net ETF outflows directly translated into selling pressure in the spot market, with institutional investors adopting a cautious short-term stance on ETH. Meanwhile, ETH open interest is near cycle highs, with $4-6 billion in long liquidation liquidity accumulated in the derivatives market. Prices are extremely sensitive to marginal selling pressure, and small sell orders can trigger a chain of liquidations.

Secondly, the Fed's interest rate decision on June 17 released a hawkish signal, with the dot plot median rate recorded at 3.8%, significantly higher than the March forecast. The prolonged high-interest-rate environment continues to support the US dollar and dampens risk asset sentiment. Ethereum's technical picture is also weak, with the price below all major moving averages. The $1,700 level has turned from support to resistance. The Glamsterdam upgrade has been postponed to the end of Q3 2026, and the aftermath of ecosystem funding issues further weighs on market sentiment. On-chain data shows exchange reserves continue to decline. Although traditional analysis views this as a potential positive, in the current high-leverage environment, if marginal selling pressure emerges, prices could fall rapidly due to insufficient liquidity.

Volatility risk remains elevated. The focus should be on the downside test of the $1,600-$1,500 range, and be wary of the risk of cascading liquidations of leveraged positions. If the 4-hour closing price breaks below $1,650, it may quickly retest the June low of $1,450. At the macro level, continued attention is needed on Fed policy moves and ETF capital flows. Bulls need to reclaim $1,750 to stabilize upward momentum.