Bitcoin traded near $62,400 in Thursday's session, marking a 14% decline over one week as Strategy sold 32 BTC in late May, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $4.21 billion in outflows over three consecutive weeks, and the macro environment shifted with U.S. job openings rising to 7.62 million in April. The sale by Strategy, though immaterial in size at 32 BTC, carried symbolic weight as the firm had been viewed as a structural never-sell Bitcoin holder. The convergence of institutional de-risking, tighter macro conditions including the 10-year Treasury yield climbing above 4.45%, and rising oil prices created what Glassnode termed "the rally that wasn't" in its weekly onchain report.
Strategy Sells 32 BTC in Late May
Strategy sold 32 BTC in late May to fund preferred dividend payments, according to a disclosure reported by The Block. QCP Group wrote in a Wednesday note that "while the sale was immaterial in size, the signal was not," adding that "in markets, symbolism rarely pays dividends, but it can certainly move prices." Simon-Peter Massabni, head of business development at XS.com, stated that "during periods of heightened uncertainty, even relatively small transactions can have significant psychological effects and accelerate selling decisions, particularly when the short-term trend is already showing signs of weakness."
U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs Record $4.21 Billion Outflows Over Three Weeks
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows across three consecutive weeks, with cumulative redemptions reaching $4.21 billion, according to Glassnode. Wednesday's SoSoValue data showed $396.60 million in net daily outflows from June 3, bringing total net assets across the product suite to $82.83 billion against a cumulative net inflow of $54.26 billion since launch. The ETF cost basis near $83,000 emerged as a resistance level, with Bitcoin rejected at that level during the recent bounce, placing the average ETF investor back into an unrealized loss position, per Glassnode's weekly onchain report. Glassnode wrote that "the rejection is particularly noteworthy because ETF flows have been one of the dominant sources of demand throughout this cycle."
U.S. Job Openings Rise to 7.62 Million in April
U.S. job openings rose to 7.62 million in April, the highest reading in nearly two years and 750,000 above consensus, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield back above 4.45% and repricing Fed expectations toward more than a 50% probability of a rate hike by year-end. Oil prices climbed as U.S.-Iran peace talks stalled. Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, stated that "the combination of higher oil and stronger-than-expected services data put inflation risks back at the center of the narrative," adding that "amber signals had been flashing that risk appetite was waning and needed a new catalyst." Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, characterized the move as "a combination of profit-taking, stretched positioning and a reassessment of geopolitical risks after weeks of almost uninterrupted gains."
Glassnode Reports $1.35 Billion Daily Realized Losses
Glassnode's weekly onchain report, titled "The Rally That Wasn't," showed the firm's seven-day moving average of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio collapsed from a local high of 3.16 on May 7 to 0.29 this week. Total realized losses spiked to $1.35 billion per day, with $770 million attributed to long-term holders capitulating from cycle-top positions. The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $76,400 fell below the True Market Mean for the first time since January 2022, a configuration Glassnode associates with later-stage bear market conditions where "the time component of the drawdown begins to bear down on investor conviction." CryptoQuant added that short-term holders exhibited their strongest capitulation signal of the year, with 53,800 BTC transferred to exchanges at a loss over a single 24-hour window while profit-taking inflows dropped to zero.
Bitwise Sentiment Index Triggers Contrarian Buy Signal
Andre Dragosch, head of research Europe at Bitwise, stated that the firm's Cryptoasset Sentiment Index triggered a contrarian buy signal, dropping to minus one standard deviation and its most bearish reading since the February 5 capitulation. Dragosch said that "historically, sentiment extremes of this kind tend to mark points of maximum pessimism rather than the start of a sustained downtrend." He added that Bitwise's proprietary valuation index currently sits in the lowest 20% of its historical range. Dragosch pointed to Bitcoin's 200-week moving average near $61,000 and the realized price around $56,000 as levels that have repeatedly provided support during prior bear-market phases, stating that "how bitcoin behaves around them in the coming sessions should tell us a great deal about whether this drawdown is closer to its end."
Options Markets Reprice 30-Day Volatility to 41.4%
QCP Group noted that 30-day at-the-money implied volatility repriced to around 41.4%, up more than four volatility points on the day and seven on the week, while realized volatility caught up to implied. The firm wrote that "the message from vol is less 'buy the dip' and more 'please ensure the dip before discussing it.'" Glassnode's analysis confirmed that put premiums across the one-month, three-month, and six-month tenors remained elevated at 13% to 14%, while the front-end term structure inverted mildly and dealer gamma exposure concentrated around the current spot.
FAQ
What caused Bitcoin to drop 14% in one week?
Bitcoin's 14% decline resulted from Strategy selling 32 BTC in late May, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recording $4.21 billion in outflows over three consecutive weeks, and a macro environment shift including U.S. job openings rising to 7.62 million in April and the 10-year Treasury yield climbing above 4.45%.
How much did U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs lose in outflows over three weeks?
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded cumulative redemptions of $4.21 billion over three consecutive weeks, according to Glassnode, with Wednesday's SoSoValue data showing an additional $396.60 million in net daily outflows from June 3.
