Western defence analysts warned the world may be 'a few moves' from wider war as Russia Leader Vladimir Putin tightens alignment with China, Iran and North Korea, according to a report published May 29. Steve Forbes stated he believed an attack on the Baltic states was inevitable, pointing to Russian threats and drone activity near Lithuania. The warnings focused on potential flashpoints in the Baltic region where Moscow could exploit tensions around Russian-speaking minorities to test NATO's resolve.
Forbes Warns Baltic States Face Inevitable Attack
Steve Forbes said he believed an attack on the Baltic states was inevitable, pointing to Russian threats, drone activity near Lithuania and cyberattacks in the region, Forbes Magazine reported. Forbes argued that a full-scale operation could come at any time, with Putin insisting he is 'rescuing' ethnic Russians, drawing a parallel with Adolf Hitler's claims about Germans in Czechoslovakia in 1938.
Putin (R), Chinese President Xi Jinping (L) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, May 20
Analysts Cite Russian-Speaking Minorities as Potential Pretext
Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are home to sizable Russian-speaking minorities, in some areas 'up to 20 to 25%'. Analysts warned the Kremlin could try to exploit that to justify aggression. Putin could claim ethnic Russians in the Baltics are being 'discriminated against, persecuted, and suppressed' and use it as a pretext to 'invade or somehow attack the Baltic nations' to reinforce the idea the former Soviet republics 'should always be part of Russia', the National Security Journal reported.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's office shows him (R) receiving Putin in Tehran on July 19, 2022
Article References NATO Article V Response Uncertainty
The report raised the question of whether NATO would trigger Article V if Russia moved against one of the Baltic nations, and how the US would respond. The piece noted uncertainty over whether President Donald Trump would order American forces based in Europe to strike Russia, even though Poland and Germany would be pivotal in any counter-attack to defend the Baltics.
Royal Marines conduct boarding drills in the eastern Baltic Sea
Forbes wrote: 'We should boost aid to Ukraine and fortify our position with our European allies. None of this precludes taking the proper steps to deter China. The only real impediment is our will to do what's necessary for our safety and that of the Free World.'
The article argued the geopolitical landscape is no longer as clearly divided as during the Cold War, but warned of a growing authoritarian alignment, the 'CRINK' axis of evil, linking China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, as per the National Security Journal.
FAQ
What did Western defence analysts warn about on May 29?
Western defence analysts warned the world may be 'a few moves' from wider war as Russia Leader Vladimir Putin tightens alignment with China, Iran and North Korea, according to a report published May 29.
What did Steve Forbes say about the Baltic states?
Steve Forbes said he believed an attack on the Baltic states was inevitable, pointing to Russian threats, drone activity near Lithuania and cyberattacks in the region, Forbes Magazine reported.
Why do analysts focus on the Baltic states as a potential flashpoint?
Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are home to sizable Russian-speaking minorities, in some areas 'up to 20 to 25%'. Analysts warned the Kremlin could exploit tensions around these minorities to justify aggression and test NATO's resolve, the National Security Journal reported.
