AI Agent Evolution Drives DRAM Shortage to 30-50%, Next Price Spike Looms in 2027: Guotai Haitong

According to Guru Club, on May 15, Guotai Haitong Securities research found that AI-driven supply chain inflation is reshaping semiconductor allocation. Traditional DRAM supply shortages have reached 30-50%, with prices surging as AI accelerators compete for HBM resources. Meanwhile, Amazon AWS and Google Cloud have broken their two-decade pricing decline to raise fees, signaling cost pressures moving downstream to consumers.

The evolution of AI Agent from chat to action is expected to trigger the next inflation cycle. Token consumption surged 300-fold between 2024-2025, with each Agent task requiring dozens of times more backend computation than regular chat. This will drive exponential growth in HBM demand, but supply expansion faces bottlenecks from wafer consumption and yield constraints, with significant capacity relief not expected until 2027-2028.