Only a 5% chance of rate cut! The Federal Reserve shifts to caution, BTC, ETH, XRP all decline collectively in a single day
January 19 News, as the Fed’s rate cut expectations in January rapidly cool down, the cryptocurrency market has come under significant pressure this week. Rate futures-related tools show that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January has risen to about 95%, with the current target range still at 3.50%–3.75%, and the chance of a rate cut remaining at approximately 5%. This shift has quickly impacted risk asset sentiment, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP all weakening in tandem.
Looking at a longer cycle, policy expectations for the March meeting also lean towards caution. Market data indicates that the probability of the Fed holding steady in March is about 75%, with the rate cut possibility compressed to around 25%. Against the background of limited liquidity expectations, crypto market volatility has significantly increased, and short-term funds are becoming more conservative.
On the policy front, Trump has recently publicly called for a rate cut again, believing that inflation data has shown signs of easing. However, Fed Chair Powell emphasized in his latest statement in Washington that action will be taken only after a thorough assessment of the data, signaling “patience and observation.” This hawkish policy stance has become a key factor suppressing crypto assets.
In terms of market performance, the overall cryptocurrency market cap retreated by about 2.8% today, falling to approximately $3.13 trillion. BTC is currently at $92,454, down about 2.75% for the day, still holding above the $90,000 support level, but significantly below the weekly high of $97,600. ETH is at $3,193, with a 24-hour decline of about 3.56%, after briefly touching above $3,300. XRP’s decline is even more pronounced, now at about $1.95, with a daily drop of nearly 4.8%, and a weekly decline expanding to 5.8%.
Analysts believe that, with the weakening of rate cut expectations, market liquidity is unlikely to improve quickly, and mainstream assets like BTC, ETH, and XRP are still facing short-term adjustment pressures. The uncertainty surrounding the interest rate path is becoming one of the most critical macro variables for the crypto market in early 2026.
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