Bitcoin Could Drop to $38,000 in October 2026, Warns Leading Crypto Analyst

The start of 2026 has been marked by a fierce battle between Bitcoin bulls and bears. While optimists expect another upward leg for Bitcoin, a growing number of skeptics are warning that the market may be entering the early stages of a new crypto winter. Among the analysts leaning toward a more cautious outlook is well-known on-chain expert Ali Martinez. In a January 12 post on X, Martinez warned that Bitcoin could reach the bottom of the current cycle in roughly 267 days, pointing to October 2026 as the most likely timeframe. According to his estimate, Bitcoin’s price at that point could fall within a range of $38,000 to $50,000.

Why October 2026 Could Mark Bitcoin’s Next Cycle Bottom Martinez’s outlook is not based on sentiment, but on a repeating historical cycle pattern. His analysis shows that Bitcoin typically takes: approximately 1,064 days to move from a cycle bottom to a market topfollowed by around 364 days to retrace from the top back to the next bottom This cadence, Martinez notes, has appeared consistently across three previous market cycles, spanning from the January 2015 bottom to the peak reached in October 2025. A key reference point is Bitcoin’s most recent all-time high, recorded on October 6, 2025. If the same historical rhythm repeats, adding roughly 364 days places the next potential cycle low around October 5, 2026.

How Low Could Bitcoin Go in 2026? In a separate analysis published on December 21, 2025, Martinez also outlined a price-based projection for the cycle bottom. He compared the magnitude of past bear markets: the 2017–2018 bear market saw an 84% decline from the peakthe 2021–2022 bear market produced a 77% correction The midpoint of these two drawdowns is roughly 80%. Applying a similar retracement to the latest cycle high just above $126,000 would imply a potential bottom near $37,500. That said, Martinez left room for flexibility in his January forecast, instead highlighting a broader $38,000–$50,000 range. This suggests he expects the 2026 downturn to be somewhat milder than previous crypto winters, rather than a repeat of the most extreme historical crashes.

A Warning, Not a Certainty While the analysis allows for a less severe correction, Martinez’s outlook serves as a clear warning that sharp drawdowns remain an inherent part of Bitcoin’s market structure. The current phase may represent a transition period rather than a confirmed continuation of the bull trend.

What Should Investors Take Away? Bitcoin’s history repeatedly demonstrates that time-based market cycles matter, and that periods of euphoria are often followed by painful corrections. If historical patterns hold—even partially—October 2026 could become a critical stress test for investor conviction. Whether the cycle ultimately plays out exactly as before, or whether Bitcoin once again defies expectations, remains to be seen.

#BTC , #bitcoin , #cryptocrash , #CryptoAnalysis , #CryptoNews

Stay one step ahead – follow our profile and stay informed about everything important in the world of cryptocurrencies! Notice: ,The information and views presented in this article are intended solely for educational purposes and should not be taken as investment advice in any situation. The content of these pages should not be regarded as financial, investment, or any other form of advice. We caution that investing in cryptocurrencies can be risky and may lead to financial losses.“