Ekspektasi penurunan suku bunga Federal Reserve mereda, dana kripto mengalami keluar masuk sebesar 454 juta dolar AS dalam satu minggu

CoinShares最新数字资产周报显示, global crypto funds recorded a net outflow of approximately $454 million last week, nearly offsetting the inflow of about $1.5 billion over two trading days at the beginning of the year. The core background of the change in sentiment lies in the market’s明显减弱的对美联储3月降息预期。

从宏观层面看, recently released US economic data reinforce the judgment to “maintain interest rates unchanged”. According to interest rate pricing tools, the probability of a rate cut in March has fallen to single digits. CoinShares指出, it is this change in expectations that prompted some institutions to quickly adjust risk exposure, triggering连续多日的资金撤离。

区域结构上, the US has become the main source of capital outflows, with a weekly net outflow approaching $570 million. Meanwhile, some non-US regions have seen mild net inflows, reflecting the divergence in acceptance of crypto assets under different macro environments, and also highlighting the amplifying effect of dollar interest rate expectations on market sentiment.

At the asset level, Bitcoin-related investment products are under the most pressure, with weekly outflows exceeding $400 million. Ethereum also experienced significant redemptions, and multi-asset products also weakened simultaneously. Notably, even Bitcoin short products failed to attract safe-haven funds, indicating that the market has not formed a clear one-sided expectation.

In contrast, some altcoins have shown selective capital inflows. Assets like XRP, Solana, Sui recorded varying degrees of net inflows, indicating that funds are shifting from broad allocation to assets with relatively stronger momentum and narrative support. This rotation characteristic is largely consistent with the “selective allocation” trend since early 2026.

Looking at long-term data, the global crypto fund’s annual capital inflow in 2025 still reached as high as $47.2 billion, close to historical highs. Therefore, this $454 million outflow is more like a phased adjustment after re-pricing the interest rate path, rather than a trend reversal. As macro signals gradually become clearer, the structural changes in funds between Bitcoin and altcoins will continue to dominate the subsequent market rhythm.