On July 9, 2026, Hong Kong-listed AI large model company MINIMAX (00100.HK) faced its first major post-IPO lock-up share release. The stock opened at HKD 359.8, surged to HKD 397.4 during the session, then sharply reversed course to close at HKD 297.4, marking a full-day drop of 17.98%. On July 10, the price continued to slide, reaching around HKD 268. Over two trading days, the stock plummeted from an intraday high of HKD 397 to the HKD 268 range—a swing of over 30%. What kind of structural shift did this unlock event trigger? What are investors worried about? How should we assess the stock’s future trajectory?
How Unlock Scale and Supply Shock Are Reshaping the Free-Float Landscape
The scale of MINIMAX’s unlocked shares is highly unusual among Hong Kong tech stocks. About 44.85% of shares (nearly 146 million shares) were unlocked in bulk on July 9, instantly boosting the free-float ratio from under 6% to roughly 50%. The supply increased nearly tenfold in a single day. Before the unlock, MINIMAX’s real free-float was extremely limited, with shares tightly concentrated among locked-up shareholders. This meant that even a small portion of unlocked shares sold could significantly impact the stock price. On the unlock day, MINIMAX traded 20.944 million shares—almost six times the previous day’s volume. Such intense turnover signals a deep restructuring of the previous shareholding structure.
Where Does the Gap Between Stated Holdings and Actual Selling Pressure Come From?
Ahead of the unlock, more than 80% of Pre-IPO and cornerstone shareholders publicly expressed long-term confidence and commitment to hold, including Alibaba, miHoYo, IDG, Aspex, Boyu, China Life, and other diverse institutions. However, there’s a structural mismatch between stated holdings and actual sellable shares. The founding team and key employees are under a 12-month voluntary lock-up, not part of this unlock; miHoYo’s core holdings are also subject to longer lock-up arrangements. The real sellers this round are mainly Pre-IPO and cornerstone shareholders whose 6-month lock-up has expired. Crucially, MINIMAX’s shareholder base has a high proportion of financial PE/VC investors, whose entry cost is very low and unrealized gains are substantial, creating strong motivation to exit during the unlock window. Thus, the diverse group of stated holders can’t fully offset the selling pressure from actual sellable shares.
What Does the Price Divergence With Zhipu AI Reveal About Market Logic?
MINIMAX and Zhipu AI went public in Hong Kong around the same time, but their unlock-day performances diverged sharply. Zhipu jumped 13.35% on its first unlock day (July 8), and rose another 11.34% the next day. In contrast, MINIMAX plunged nearly 18% on its unlock day. This divergence isn’t simply due to the unlock ratio—Zhipu unlocked about 5.76%, MINIMAX about 44.85%. The deeper reason is the market’s repricing of different AI business models. Zhipu is closely tied to foundational models, domestic computing power, and developer platforms, making it easier to command a valuation premium in the current market climate. MINIMAX’s strengths lie in multimodal models, consumer products, and overseas growth, but investors are still watching to see if these advantages translate into agent ecosystems, developer communities, and stable commercial revenue. The market cap gap has shifted from MINIMAX leading at IPO to MINIMAX now being only about one-tenth of Zhipu’s, reflecting a shift in capital preference between two technical paths.
Do Model Competitiveness and Commercialization Support the Current Valuation?
MINIMAX’s fundamentals are also under scrutiny amid its stock decline. In 2025, the company reported revenue of about USD 79.04 million, up 159% year-over-year, but an adjusted net loss of USD 250 million, with R&D spending exceeding 70% of revenue. Overall gross margin for consumer products was only 4.7%; the B2B open platform posted around 70% gross margin but remains small in scale. On the model front, the M3 model released in June ranked unimpressively in third-party evaluations, and the company announced a permanent 50% reduction in API prices just one week after launch. JPMorgan downgraded its rating from "Overweight" to "Neutral" after M3’s release, slashing the target price from HKD 1,100 to HKD 400, and further to HKD 300 on July 8, citing the company’s "failure to launch a new domestic SOTA model, with pure model capabilities still catching up." Meanwhile, competitor Zhipu has repeatedly raised API prices—up more than 80% cumulatively—yet usage quadrupled. The difference in market recognition of model capabilities directly impacts investor confidence in valuation.
What Signal Did the Post-Unlock Financing Actions Send?
After the unlock-day session, MINIMAX swiftly launched a new round of financing—planning to place 30 million new shares at a fixed price of HKD 268 per share, a 9.9% discount to the July 9 closing price of HKD 297.4. Simultaneously, it issued HKD 6.5 billion zero-coupon convertible bonds maturing in 2027, with a 25% conversion premium. Morgan Stanley and UBS are arranging the transaction. Launching financing while selling pressure from the unlock hasn’t fully dissipated shows the company’s urgent need for capital—AI large model training and inference require massive infrastructure investment. Discounted share placement itself adds further pressure to the secondary market. The convertible bond provides a relatively low-cost financing channel, but conversion pressure after maturity in 2027 is a variable to watch. This financing package is a defensive move to replenish "ammunition" amid unlock turbulence, but it also signals cash flow stress to the market.
How Are Institutional Rating Divergences and Potential Catalysts Playing Out?
Institutions are sharply divided on MINIMAX’s rating. Goldman Sachs maintained a "Buy" rating in the first week of July with a target price of HKD 860, citing M3’s self-built optimized computing power and efficient architecture, with gross margins significantly higher than peers. BofA Securities also maintained a "Buy" rating, target price HKD 500, noting MINIMAX may be included in Stock Connect on August 6, potentially boosting liquidity. Citi, however, cut its target price to HKD 533 on July 6, citing lukewarm market response to M3, short-term negative sentiment, and uncertainty in monetization strategies as pressures on the stock. As for potential catalysts, MINIMAX management remains confident in achieving USD 1 billion annual recurring revenue (ARR) by the end of 2026; the launch of a next-generation video model could be a key catalyst for shifting market sentiment; additionally, the company has signed a Sci-Tech Innovation Board IPO counseling agreement with CITIC Securities, kicking off its "A+H" dual-capital platform plan. However, the timing and impact of these catalysts remain highly uncertain.
Summary
MINIMAX’s wild swings from July 9 to 10 were the result of a massive unlock, shareholder structure differences, doubts about model competitiveness, and urgent financing needs. The market rapidly repriced the AI stock from HKD 397 to HKD 268 in just two trading days. In the short term, the supply shock from the unlock hasn’t been fully digested, and discounted share placements plus convertible bond issuance are adding more supply pressure. In the medium term, MINIMAX’s valuation recovery will hinge on three core variables: whether substantive improvements in model capabilities can regain market recognition, whether B2B commercialization can accelerate to hit the USD 1 billion ARR target, and whether inclusion in Stock Connect will attract incremental capital. The current split in institutional ratings means the market has yet to reach consensus on MINIMAX’s valuation—this divergence is precisely the key uncertainty to watch going forward.
FAQ
Q1: How many shares did MINIMAX unlock on July 9?
On July 9, MINIMAX completed its first major post-IPO lock-up release, unlocking about 44.85% of shares (nearly 146 million shares), with the free-float ratio expanding from under 6% to about 50%.
Q2: Why was there such a big difference between MINIMAX and Zhipu AI’s unlock-day performance?
The unlock ratios were very different—MINIMAX about 44.85%, Zhipu about 5.76%. Also, their shareholder structures differ: Zhipu’s unlocked shares are mainly held by state-backed cornerstone investors with little incentive to sell, while MINIMAX has a high proportion of financial PE/VC investors with strong motivation to exit. The market’s preference for each AI business path is another key factor.
Q3: What financing actions did MINIMAX take after the unlock?
After the July 9 session, MINIMAX planned to place 30 million new shares at HKD 268 per share, a 9.9% discount to the closing price, and simultaneously issued HKD 6.5 billion zero-coupon convertible bonds maturing in 2027 with a 25% conversion premium.
Q4: What are the latest institutional ratings for MINIMAX?
Institutional opinions are split. Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating, target price HKD 860; BofA Securities maintains "Buy," target price HKD 500; JPMorgan cut its target price from HKD 400 to HKD 300, rating "Neutral"; Citi lowered its target price to HKD 533.
Q5: What are the key catalysts to watch for MINIMAX going forward?
Key factors include: launch of a next-generation video model, potential inclusion in Stock Connect in August to boost liquidity, progress toward the USD 1 billion ARR target by end-2026, and advancement of the "A+H" dual-capital platform plan.
