June 12, 2026, marked a historic milestone as SpaceX, under the ticker SPCX, debuted on the Nasdaq, shattering global IPO records. Founded by Elon Musk, the rocket company issued 555.6 million shares at $135 each, raising $75 billion. The stock closed its first day at $160.95, up 19.22% from the IPO price, pushing its market capitalization past $2.1 trillion and making it the sixth-largest publicly traded company in the US. This event not only crowned Musk as the world’s first "trillionaire" but also reset market expectations for the "space + AI" narrative to unprecedented heights.
However, the debate over SpaceX’s valuation is as intense as the attention its scale commands. Morningstar analysts, using a discounted cash flow model, estimated SpaceX’s fair value at just $780 billion—less than half the IPO price. NYU valuation expert Aswath Damodaran pegged fair value at $1.3 trillion, also suggesting significant premium in the IPO pricing. With a $2 trillion market cap on day one, what core assets underpin this figure? How did SpaceX’s February 2026 merger with xAI fundamentally reshape its valuation model?
The Core of the $2 Trillion Valuation: How the xAI Merger Redefined SpaceX’s Pricing Benchmark
To understand how SpaceX achieved a $2 trillion IPO valuation, we must first revisit the pivotal restructuring before its listing.
In February 2026, SpaceX completed an all-stock, tax-free acquisition of xAI and X, classified as a "business combination under common control." At the time, SpaceX was valued at about $1 trillion, while xAI, founded in 2023, was priced at $250 billion, resulting in a combined entity valued at $1.25 trillion. Structurally, this amounted to an "internal valuation anchor" set before the IPO—the merger established a $1.25 trillion benchmark, and the IPO price range of $1.77–2 trillion implied a premium of roughly 41% to 60%.
But the merger brought more than just a notional boost in valuation. In its IPO prospectus, SpaceX broke down its business into three segments: the communications segment, led by Starlink, generated $11.39 billion in revenue in 2025 with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 63%; the space segment, including launch services, posted an operating loss of $657 million in 2025, mainly due to annual Starship R&D costs of about $3 billion; and the AI segment, a "cash burner," recorded just $3.2 billion in 2025 revenue but a staggering $6.36 billion operating loss. The group posted a net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025, after being profitable as a standalone entity in 2024.
In other words, by merging with xAI, SpaceX shifted from a profitable aerospace company to a loss-making diversified tech giant on paper, yet its IPO valuation soared to $2 trillion. This "the more you lose, the more you’re worth" paradox highlights that capital markets are not valuing SpaceX by traditional current earnings. Instead, investors are paying a premium for a "vertically integrated portfolio": Starlink as the cash flow engine, AI as a growth option, and space infrastructure as a long-term narrative backbone.
Revenue and Cash Flow Structure: The Foundation of the $2 Trillion Valuation
To assess the validity of this valuation, we must examine the company’s revenue and cash flow structure.
As of March 2026, Starlink had about 9,600 satellites in orbit, serving over 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries, with total 2025 revenue reaching $18.67 billion. At the IPO price of $135 per share, SpaceX’s $1.77 trillion market cap implied a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of roughly 94.7x—an extraordinarily high multiple, even among tech giants. For comparison, NVIDIA’s P/S ratio is about 22x.
Two key assumptions underpin this lofty multiple.
First, can Starlink’s user growth continue? Average revenue per user (ARPU) dropped from $99 to $66 per month—a 33% decline—indicating the company is aggressively targeting emerging markets with lower-priced plans to drive user growth. Second, when will xAI’s AI business achieve positive operating profit? In Q1 2026, the AI division generated $818 million in revenue but posted a $2.469 billion operating loss, far outstripping its income. The AI segment’s 2025 capital expenditures reached $12.73 billion, mainly for NVIDIA chip purchases and Colossus supercomputer center construction.
From a cash flow perspective, Starlink’s profits are indeed plugging the capital expenditure gaps for xAI and Starship. In Q1 2026, the AI division’s capex was $7.723 billion—76.4% of the group’s total—while Starlink’s capex was just $1.33 billion. SpaceX’s business model can be summarized as "Starlink funds AI, Starship burns cash"—Starlink’s profits are reinvested as growth fuel rather than paid out as dividends. Within this framework, the 94.7x P/S ratio is less about current operational efficiency and more about the market’s strong belief in the future cash flow potential of this "self-sustaining loop."
Institutional Valuation Debate: Bulls vs. Bears
The market’s valuation debate reflects a fundamental clash of pricing methodologies.
On the bearish side, Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens stands out. Using a discounted cash flow model, he values SpaceX at about $780 billion, or $60 per share. This conservative estimate values the core launch and Starlink businesses at $611 billion, assigning only about $170 billion in probability-weighted value to the AI segment. Owens argues that xAI lacks a clear economic moat and that its AI business could be a "value destroyer," noting that xAI’s terminable AI compute contracts do not justify the $250 billion internal merger valuation.
The bullish camp leans more on long-term technology narratives. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives calls SpaceX’s IPO a milestone for the AI revolution and the space economy, highlighting Starlink and space-based data infrastructure as critical physical layers for AI edge computing and low-latency connectivity. Some Wall Street institutions break down SpaceX’s valuation as "Starlink anchors cash flow, Starship acts as a cost lever, and space AI data centers serve as long-dated call options"—essentially positioning SpaceX as a multi-sector platform spanning communications, aerospace, and AI.
Notably, the SPCX IPO was oversubscribed by about 4x, with retail demand exceeding $100 billion, though only about 20% of shares were allocated to retail investors. This suggests that even at a $1.77 trillion IPO valuation, short-term market demand outstripped supply. Whether the pricing is "too high" depends on whether one references DCF-modeled present value or the long-term "space + AI" synergy narrative.
SPCX First-Day Trading: 19% Surge and the Siphon Effect
Looking at historical IPOs, SPCX’s first-day performance should be viewed in a longer-term context.
On June 12, SPCX opened at $150, peaked at $176.52, dipped to a low of $149.34, and closed at $160.95, with over 500 million shares traded and a total turnover of about $80 billion. The 19% first-day gain is robust for an IPO, though still within a reasonable range compared to the doubling seen in some tech IPOs during the dot-com bubble.
SpaceX’s IPO structure aimed to dampen first-day volatility—including allocating 20–30% of shares to retail investors and implementing tiered post-IPO lockup restrictions. Underwriters also had an 830 million share "greenshoe" overallotment option to boost supply if demand remained strong.
A notable side effect was the "siphon effect"—on SPCX’s listing day, other space-related stocks saw sharp declines: Virgin Galactic plunged 31%, Rocket Lab and EchoStar dropped about 10%. The flow of capital from peers into the newly listed leader squeezed liquidity in the sector, underscoring the market’s intense appetite for this single asset.
Bitcoin Holdings: The Strategic Rationale Behind 18,712 BTC
SpaceX’s IPO filings also included disclosures relevant to the crypto market.
According to its amended S-1 filed with the SEC, as of March 31, 2026, SpaceX held 18,712 Bitcoin, with a cost basis of about $661 million and an average purchase price of $35,320, for a fair value of about $1.293 billion. At the current Bitcoin price of around $65,300, this holding is worth over $1.2 billion—nearly double on paper. This makes SpaceX the world’s eighth-largest public company Bitcoin holder, ranking behind Strategy, MicroStrategy, and Coinbase.
SpaceX classifies these Bitcoin holdings as "non-core treasury assets," meaning they are not essential to operations but are sizable enough to require disclosure. This complements Tesla’s holding of 11,509 Bitcoin—together, Musk’s two companies own 30,221 Bitcoin, enough to place in the top five among public company holders if combined.
From a corporate treasury perspective, SpaceX’s decision to retain rather than liquidate its Bitcoin during the IPO process signals at least two things: first, the company has some confidence in the asset’s medium- to long-term value (at least not selling during the IPO window); second, Bitcoin is now a viable treasury reserve tool for leading tech companies. Unlike Strategy, which treats Bitcoin as a core asset, SpaceX’s holdings account for just 0.06% of its $2 trillion market cap—a "marginal but symbolic" presence. Still, SpaceX’s move to use Bitcoin as a reserve sets a precedent for corporate balance sheets.
Gate Stock Trading: Invest in SPCX Directly with USDT
For crypto investors looking to participate in SPCX, Gate’s stock trading feature offers a direct route.
On June 9, 2026, Gate launched its "Direct-to-IPO" product, with SpaceX (SPCX) as the inaugural project. Users could submit subscription requests ahead of the official listing, and allocations were credited directly to Gate stock accounts for live trading. On June 13 at 10:00 (UTC), Gate listed the SPCXX/USDT spot trading pair, enabling users to buy and sell SPCX stock assets directly with USDT, with instant swap support.
Gate’s core advantage in stock trading is its seamless integration of crypto and stock accounts. Users do not need to open a traditional brokerage account or convert fiat; they can trade stocks directly within their existing Gate platform using USDT. Gate’s stock section supports over 10,000 US stocks (including NVIDIA, Apple, and others) and offers fractional trading from as little as $1, dramatically lowering the barrier to investing in high-priced tech stocks.
Additionally, Gate’s trading fees can be as low as 0.023% (for eligible VIP users) and the platform supports a range of derivatives, including perpetual contracts and leveraged ETFs, catering to diverse investment strategies. For crypto holders seeking US stock exposure, Gate eliminates the need to juggle separate accounts and funding channels, offering a clear competitive edge over traditional brokers.
Conclusion
SpaceX’s $2 trillion IPO valuation is the ultimate stress test for capital markets pricing the combined narratives of "space infrastructure + AI compute + satellite communications." The $1.25 trillion internal valuation anchor from the xAI merger, combined with retail subscription frenzy and institutional growth expectations, pushed the market cap to $2.1 trillion on day one. This figure reflects not the company’s 2025 revenue of $18.67 billion, but the market’s long-term expectations for Starlink’s user growth, AI’s path to profitability, and Starship’s commercial rollout.
The real value of the bull-bear debate lies in mapping the boundaries of pricing uncertainty. Key variables to watch in the coming quarters will be Starlink’s ARPU trends, xAI’s operating loss trajectory, and the pace of AI infrastructure capex—all of which will determine whether the $2 trillion valuation is justified. For crypto investors, SpaceX’s surprise Bitcoin disclosure and platforms like Gate enabling direct SPCX investment with USDT are steadily breaking down the barriers between traditional equity and digital asset markets.
