July 17, 2026 — According to Gate market data, BTC/USDT is trading at approximately $63,050, marking a 1.62% decline over the past 24 hours, a modest 0.72% rebound in the past seven days, and a cumulative drop of 45.66% over the past year. After months of persistent downward volatility, on-chain data is now revealing a series of signals worth close attention.
Latest findings from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode indicate that "cycle peak buyers" holding Bitcoin for 1-2 years—those who entered the market between July 2024 and July 2025 with cost bases ranging from roughly $62,800 to $107,000—are showing signs that their realized losses have peaked and are beginning to recede. Historically, this pattern has often preceded major bear market bottoms.
How Realized Loss Metrics Predict Bear Market Bottoms
Realized loss measures the actual dollar amount lost by investors when selling Bitcoin. Unlike unrealized losses, realized loss reflects genuine selling pressure being converted into actual sales, not just paper losses.
Cryptovizart, Chief Research Analyst at Glassnode, points out that the 30-day moving average of realized loss for the 1-2 year holder cohort is one of the most critical on-chain indicators for assessing whether a bear market is nearing its end. When this 30-day average begins to cool and turn downward, it typically signals that the most intense phase of selling has passed.
In this cycle, the 30-day rolling realized loss for this group surged past $75 million before reversing. Similar reversal patterns appeared ahead of the bear market lows in 2018, 2020, and 2022. Logically, when the selling pressure from a core loss group peaks and starts to diminish, it means the market’s most motivated sellers are reducing their activity, leading to a marginal improvement in supply-demand dynamics.
Why Investors Who Bought at $107,000 Are Key to This Bear Market
Between July 2024 and July 2025, the Bitcoin price climbed steadily from about $62,800 to $107,000. Investors who continued buying during this period make up the "cycle peak buyers" holding for 1-2 years.
As Bitcoin’s price retreated from its highs, a significant portion of this group’s positions are now underwater. Glassnode data shows that long-term holders account for roughly 43% of all realized losses on-chain, with single-day realized loss peaking at $280 million—the highest since December 2022, following the FTX collapse.
Each panic-driven sell-off by this cohort brings the market closer to exhausting available sellers. When the 30-day moving average of realized loss falls from its peak, history suggests the most aggressive selling phase is usually over. Therefore, whether investors who bought near $107,000 stop capitulating en masse directly impacts the persistence of supply pressure in the market.
What Does Five Consecutive Months Below Key Cost Benchmarks Mean for Bitcoin?
Glassnode’s "The Week On-Chain" report notes that Bitcoin has traded below both the "True Market Mean" (around $76,600) and the "Short-Term Holder Cost Basis" (around $72,200) for about five months. This marks one of the longest "deep value zone" stretches in Bitcoin’s history.
The True Market Mean reflects the average cost of active investor groups, while the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis represents the average purchase price of entrants over the past 155 days. When prices remain below these benchmarks, most short-term participants are sitting on unrealized losses, and any rebound may trigger sell pressure from those seeking to break even.
However, from another perspective, the longer price stays in the deep value zone, the more thoroughly weak holders are flushed out. Historical data shows these periods typically last over six months before meaningful recovery signals emerge. The current five-month duration is approaching the historical time window for market bottoms.
How Multiple On-Chain Indicators Combine to Assess Market Cycle Position
Beyond the realized loss metric for 1-2 year holders, several on-chain indicators are converging to form a composite set of bottom signals.
Long-term holder capitulation indicator is showing cyclical inflection. Glassnode’s latest weekly report reveals that long-term holder capitulation—the main source of selling pressure this cycle—peaked two weeks ago and has begun to decline. This indicator measures the daily number of Bitcoins surrendered by long-term holders and is now in its first downtrend of the current cycle.
Realized profit-loss ratio remains below 1.0, indicating that realized losses outweigh profits. Historically, this state is closely associated with market bottom zones.
UTXO profit-loss ratio has also entered historically extreme territory. As of July 15, 2026, this metric is in the same range seen at every major market bottom since 2016. More Bitcoins are in loss than in profit—about 10.83 million BTC underwater, compared to 9.22 million in profit.
Spot ETF outflows are slowing. The 30-day average outflow from US Bitcoin spot ETFs has dropped from a peak of $193 million per day in early June to $89 million per day. While overall demand hasn’t recovered, the slowdown itself signals marginal improvement.
Collectively, these indicators suggest the market may be in the late stages of bottom formation, though more confirmation signals are needed to declare a definitive trend reversal.
Why $69,000 Is the Core Battleground for Bulls and Bears
The $69,000 level holds multiple layers of significance in the current market structure, which is why Glassnode defines it as "the next major battleground."
First, it’s the aggregate cost basis for short-term holders. According to Glassnode’s Week 28 on-chain report, the overall cost benchmark for short-term holders sits at $69,000. This means many recent buyers will return to breakeven at this price. The report notes: "The first touch of this level is likely to trigger a strong reaction, as those most inclined to sell are precisely those about to break even."
Second, this level coincides with Bitcoin’s all-time high from November 2021. $69,000 marks the historic peak of the previous bull cycle. From a technical analysis standpoint, prior cycle highs often serve as key psychological resistance or support zones.
Third, the outcome at this level will determine the direction of market structure evolution. Glassnode’s weekly report states: "A convincing reclaim of this level will open up room for a rebound; if rejected, the range-bound pattern will persist." If Bitcoin breaks through and holds above $69,000, it could pave the way for a move toward $75,000–$80,000. If it fails, the market will likely remain in a consolidation range.
As of July 17, Bitcoin is trading at about $63,566, roughly 8% below the $69,000 threshold. This gap leaves ample room for both bulls and bears to battle for dominance.
Where Is the Next Support If $69,000 Fails?
While $69,000 is the focal price level, the market must consider scenarios where it fails to hold.
Glassnode notes that if the $69,000 barrier isn’t reclaimed, the realized price—around $53,000 to $55,000—will become the next logical area for a market bottom. Realized price represents the average acquisition cost of all Bitcoin holders on the network and is one of the most important global support references in on-chain analysis.
During the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin briefly dipped below its realized price before launching a recovery rally that ultimately broke the $100,000 milestone. Thus, the $53,000–$55,000 range can be seen as the market’s "last line of defense"—if price touches this zone, history suggests extreme value opportunities and market panic often coexist.
What Conditions Are Needed for Market Recovery Confirmation?
Despite numerous positive signals from on-chain data, the market is still some distance from confirming a trend reversal.
Spot demand has not fully returned. Glassnode analysts emphasize that any sustained rally beyond the $69,000 threshold requires stronger spot demand. Derivatives positioning alone cannot support a lasting recovery.
ETF flows have not stabilized into net inflows. Although outflows have slowed, overall demand remains insufficient to drive prices above key resistance levels.
Long-term holder capitulation is not fully resolved. While this indicator has retreated from its peak, it remains elevated and hasn’t cooled as rapidly as it did at previous bear market bottoms.
Macro environment remains uncertain. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory, dollar performance, and global liquidity conditions will continue to be major factors influencing Bitcoin’s price.
In summary, on-chain data points to the market potentially forming a bottom structure, but confirmation signals—including sustained spot buying, stable ETF net inflows, and further reduction in long-term holder selling pressure—still require time to materialize.
Summary
Glassnode’s on-chain analysis shows that the realized loss for Bitcoin "cycle peak buyers" holding for 1-2 years began to decline after the 30-day moving average surpassed $75 million—a pattern historically seen ahead of major bear market bottoms. Long-term holder capitulation has peaked and is now receding, while multiple on-chain indicators are converging to reinforce bottom signals.
The $69,000 level, overlapping the cost basis for short-term holders and the 2021 all-time high, has become the central battleground for bulls and bears. Reclaiming this level would open room for a rebound, while rejection would prolong the consolidation phase. If this threshold fails, the realized price range of $53,000–$55,000 will serve as the next key support reference.
The market appears to be in the late stages of bottom formation, but final confirmation of a trend reversal will require sustained spot demand and stable institutional capital inflows.
FAQ
Q: Why can Glassnode’s realized loss indicator signal bear market bottoms?
Realized loss measures the actual dollar loss realized by investors when they sell. When the 30-day moving average of realized loss for the 1-2 year holder cohort—those who bought near the previous bull market peak—hits its maximum and starts to decline, historical data shows this often marks the end of the most intense selling phase and signals the market is approaching a bottom.
Q: What is the current status of investors who bought at $107,000?
Investors who entered between July 2024 and July 2025 with cost bases ranging from about $62,800 to $107,000 now have a significant portion of their positions underwater as Bitcoin’s price has fallen from its highs. This group’s realized loss has recently shown signs of peaking and declining on the 30-day moving average.
Q: Why is $69,000 so important?
$69,000 has threefold significance: first, it’s the aggregate cost basis for short-term holders, meaning many recent buyers return to breakeven here; second, it coincides with Bitcoin’s all-time high from November 2021; third, whether this level is reclaimed or rejected will determine if the market enters a rebound channel or continues range-bound consolidation.
Q: Has Bitcoin confirmed a bottom yet?
On-chain data suggests the market may be forming a bottom structure, but more confirmation signals are needed. Spot demand has not fully returned, ETF flows have not stabilized into net inflows, and long-term holder selling pressure, while off its peak, has not fully dissipated. Market recovery still needs time to be validated.
Q: If $69,000 cannot be broken, where is the next support?
If the $69,000 barrier isn’t reclaimed, the realized price range of $53,000–$55,000 will become the next logical area for a market bottom. This price represents the average acquisition cost of all Bitcoin holders and is a key global support reference in on-chain analysis.
