On June 14, the United States announced a ceasefire memorandum of understanding with Iran, with the formal signing ceremony scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. The core terms of the agreement include reopening the Strait of Hormuz, extending the ceasefire for 60 days, and initiating 60 days of negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program. This geopolitical development triggered a rare wave of synchronized movement across global asset markets—spot gold surged for three consecutive trading days, soaring by $90.15 to close at $4,308.83 per ounce on June 15, up 2.14%. The rally continued in early Asian trading on June 16, with gold trading near $4,314 per ounce. Meanwhile, Bitcoin reached $66,184 on June 16, rising 1.0% over 24 hours.
What makes this simultaneous surge noteworthy is that it breaks the long-standing market perception of the relationship between these two asset classes. Traditionally, gold and Bitcoin have not moved in tandem—gold is a time-tested safe haven, while Bitcoin, often dubbed "digital gold," exhibits very different volatility patterns. The current resonance can be traced to a clear macroeconomic transmission chain: US-Iran agreement → expectations for reopening the Strait of Hormuz → oil prices plummet → inflation pressure eases → reduced expectations for Fed rate hikes → weaker US dollar → simultaneous upward support for gold and Bitcoin.
Why Did Oil Prices Plunge After the Agreement Was Reached?
The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most critical energy chokepoint, with about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies passing through under normal circumstances. Since the US and Israel’s airstrikes on Iran on February 28, the strait has effectively been blockaded, forcing a suspension of around 14 million barrels per day in production capacity. During the conflict, Brent crude peaked at about $120 per barrel, compared to just under $70 per barrel before the outbreak.
Following the announcement of the US-Iran agreement, international oil prices tumbled. Brent crude dropped 4.8% to $83.18 per barrel, and US crude fell 5.6% to $80.13 per barrel. Light crude futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 4.87% on the 15th, closing at $80.75 per barrel. On June 16, Brent crude rebounded slightly by 0.3% to $83.42 per barrel, while WTI crude rose 0.3% to $81.12 per barrel.
However, there is still debate in the market over whether oil prices can remain at these lower levels. Analysts warn that the Strait of Hormuz must first be cleared of mines—a process that could take weeks to six months. In addition, a backlog of tankers is waiting to pass, making it difficult for oil shipments to return to pre-war levels in the short term. The CEO of Saudi Aramco further cautioned that market stability might not return until 2027. In other words, the current drop in oil prices is more "emotion-driven" selling rather than a fundamental improvement in supply.
How Does the Drop in Oil Prices Affect Inflation and Rate Hike Expectations?
Oil prices are one of the most important input variables for global inflation. According to US Department of Labor data released on June 10, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.2% year-over-year in May, up from 3.8% in April and marking the highest level since May 2023, with energy prices as a main driver. During the US-Iran conflict, the market developed a negative transmission chain: "geopolitical tensions → rising oil prices → sticky inflation → heightened Fed rate hike expectations → higher real interest rates → downward pressure on gold prices."
The reversal of this logic is at the heart of the current rally in gold and Bitcoin. With the US-Iran agreement in place and the imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, international oil prices have fallen sharply, significantly easing energy-driven inflationary pressures. As a result, expectations for a Fed rate hike this year have cooled. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, after the US-Iran framework agreement was reached, traders cut the probability of a Fed rate hike in December from nearly 70% last week to 58%.
The US Dollar Index weakened in tandem, falling 0.2% on Monday to 99.57. For gold, which is priced in US dollars, a weaker dollar directly reduces the holding cost for non-dollar investors. For Bitcoin, lower rate hike expectations mean a marginally improved liquidity environment, easing valuation pressure on risk assets.
The Logic Behind Gold’s Rally: From Geopolitical Risk Premium to Rate Expectations Reset
The key feature of this gold rally is a systemic shift in its pricing logic.
During the US-Iran conflict, geopolitical risk did not boost gold prices; instead, it became a major bearish factor. The escalation of conflict drove up oil prices, exacerbated inflation, strengthened rate hike expectations, and pushed real interest rates higher, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. This transmission chain caused gold prices to fall rather than rise during the conflict. On June 11, London spot gold hit a low of $4,024 per ounce, down about 28% from its yearly high, wiping out all gains for the year and turning negative.
The US-Iran agreement reversed this logic. Falling oil prices eased inflationary pressures, rate hike expectations cooled, US Treasury yields and the dollar weakened, and the marginal cost of holding gold decreased. At the same time, gold prices had previously tested the $4,000 level, providing strong technical support and triggering short covering and bargain hunting. Multiple positive factors converged, driving a rapid rebound in gold prices—on June 15, gold briefly broke above $4,360 per ounce, up more than 3.5%.
However, most institutions believe a unilateral rally is unlikely in the short term. The Fed’s policy meeting on June 16–17 is a key event. While the market generally expects rates to remain at 3.50% to 3.75%, US core inflation remains sticky, and policy statements may lean hawkish. The high-rate environment will continue to weigh on gold prices. In the short term, gold is likely to fluctuate widely between $4,000 and $4,800 per ounce.
Bitcoin’s Rally: Short Squeeze or Fundamental Reversal?
Bitcoin’s rally shares some drivers with gold but also displays significant differences.
On the common ground, the cooling of rate hike expectations is also a key positive for Bitcoin. Expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady or even cut them signal improved market liquidity and increased risk appetite, supporting risk assets like cryptocurrencies. After news of the US-Iran agreement broke, Bitcoin quickly surged past $65,000.
However, the structure of the driving forces behind this rally is fundamentally different for Bitcoin compared to gold. Data from the derivatives market shows that over 70% of liquidations in the past 24 hours were short positions. This suggests that the rebound is more of a short squeeze after negative news was fully priced in, rather than a fundamentally driven trend reversal. The surge in Bitcoin is not due to a systematic influx of new capital but rather forced short covering triggered by the agreement.
Additionally, the simultaneous rally in both Bitcoin and gold reflects the market’s conflicting mindset. On one hand, investors are betting on falling inflation and improved liquidity, which benefits risk assets like Bitcoin. On the other hand, concerns about the execution of the agreement are prompting flows into gold as a safe haven. The market is pricing in two contradictory risks at the same time, highlighting the high level of uncertainty currently embedded in asset prices.
Gold and Bitcoin Rally Together: New Safe Haven Narrative or Short-Term Spike?
The simultaneous rally in gold and Bitcoin has sparked renewed debate about the relationship between these two asset classes.
Historically, the relationship between gold and Bitcoin in 2026 has shown a "divergent coexistence" pattern: gold has reinforced its traditional safe haven status, while Bitcoin is transitioning toward a mature institutional asset. However, the recent synchronized movement indicates that under specific macro shocks, the pricing logic of both assets can temporarily converge—when the same macro variable (such as rate expectations) becomes the core driver for both, their directional correlation strengthens significantly.
Yet, the fundamental differences between the two are significant. Gold’s rally is primarily driven by a reset in rate expectations and a decline in real interest rates—a "cost-side" improvement. Bitcoin’s rally, in contrast, is mainly due to short covering and a marginal recovery in risk appetite—a "sentiment-side" rebound. The drivers operate on different levels and have different sustainability—rate expectation changes are slow-moving variables, while short covering is a one-off, fast-moving event.
Therefore, the current simultaneous strength in gold and Bitcoin is more likely an "event-driven spike" rather than a sign of long-term convergence in their pricing logic. The true determinants of their future direction remain the Fed’s actual policy shift and the implementation of the US-Iran agreement.
Why Could Execution Risk of the US-Iran Agreement Become the Market’s Biggest Variable?
Reaching an agreement does not mean risks are eliminated. The core uncertainty facing the market now lies in the gap between a "political signature" and "actual implementation."
First, reopening the Strait of Hormuz will not happen overnight. The strait must be cleared of mines—a process that could take weeks to six months. Global oil inventories have been heavily depleted during the prolonged disruption and will take time to rebuild. Even if the ceasefire holds, it may still take months for shipping to return to normal.
Second, the memorandum of understanding is essentially a temporary 60-day arrangement. A final agreement on Iran’s nuclear program still requires further negotiations. Iran’s deputy foreign minister has made it clear that Tehran will take countermeasures if the other party "breaches the agreement." Israel’s strike on Lebanon before the agreement was reached also suggests that the Middle East powder keg is far from defused.
Third, the market’s optimism about oil prices may be premature. A senior energy strategist at Rabobank noted that a comprehensive peace agreement is likely still a long way off. If any friction arises during implementation, oil prices could rebound, inflationary pressures could return, and rate hike expectations could rise again—reversing the current logic behind the simultaneous rally in gold and Bitcoin.
Conclusion
The US-Iran agreement, through the transmission chain of "falling oil prices → cooling inflation → reduced rate hike expectations," has provided macro-level upward momentum for both gold and Bitcoin. Gold’s rally is mainly due to lower holding costs from a reset in rate expectations, while Bitcoin’s surge is more about short covering and marginal improvement in risk appetite. The simultaneous strength of these two asset classes essentially reflects the market’s multidimensional pricing of the same macro variable, rather than a structural shift in the safe haven narrative. Key variables for future trends include the policy signals from the Fed’s June meeting, the actual implementation of the US-Iran agreement, and the pace at which the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal shipping.
FAQ
Q1: What is the main driver behind gold’s recent rally?
After the US-Iran agreement, oil prices plunged, easing global imported inflation pressures. This cooled market expectations for Fed rate hikes, weakened the dollar, and lowered the cost of holding gold. At the same time, the previous sharp drop in gold prices triggered short covering and bargain hunting, with multiple factors converging to drive the rebound.
Q2: Why did Bitcoin rise in tandem with gold?
Lower rate hike expectations mean a marginally improved liquidity environment, supporting risk assets like Bitcoin. In addition, the agreement news triggered a massive short squeeze in the derivatives market, with short covering further pushing up prices.
Q3: Is the simultaneous rally in gold and Bitcoin a long-term trend?
It is more likely an "event-driven spike." Gold’s driver is the slow-moving variable of rate expectation reset, while Bitcoin’s is the fast-moving variable of short covering, so their sustainability differs. A genuine trend change still depends on a substantial shift in Fed monetary policy.
Q4: What are the execution risks of the US-Iran agreement?
The Strait of Hormuz must be cleared of mines, and resuming shipping could take weeks to six months. The current agreement is only a temporary 60-day arrangement, with a final deal still pending negotiation. Israeli factors and Iran’s threat of "breach" are also potential risk points.
Q5: What does the Fed’s policy meeting mean for gold and Bitcoin?
The Fed’s June 16–17 meeting is the first FOMC under new Chair Waller. The market generally expects rates to remain unchanged, but the tone of the statement and adjustments to the dot plot are crucial. A hawkish stance could reverse current optimism; a dovish signal could further boost both asset classes.
