Last night a friend asked me how I see the BTC surge. I took a quick look—from 70780 to 71839, a 1.15% gain. Honestly, this kind of volatility hardly counts for much in the crypto space.

What really caught my attention was a different set of data.

BTC holdings on exchanges have dropped to their lowest point since November 2017. This means more and more people are withdrawing coins and locking them into cold wallets—the market is actively contracting supply.

Everyone's focused on price, but what really matters is the flow of chips. Continuous decline in exchange reserves signals that supply is being squeezed.

Looking at funding rates, they're now in an extremely low negative range. Shorts are crowded, and market sentiment is pessimistic.

On the geopolitical front, the US-Iran conflict does bring uncertainty. But interestingly, since the conflict began, BTC's gains have outpaced gold, silver, and the S&P 500.

This might suggest the market is already starting to price BTC as a safe-haven asset.

Risks certainly exist. If it breaks below the 70500 support level, it could test 69500 or even lower. But if it holds steady and breaks through 73330, looking at 74000 shouldn't be a problem.
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