No, I wouldn't believe him—and this scenario illustrates a common pattern:

**Why the promises ring hollow:**
- He's only apologizing because he's caught and suffering consequences, not because he genuinely changed
- The motivation was fear/desperation, not remorse
- His character traits that enabled years of bullying haven't suddenly vanished
- He had many opportunities to change before facing consequences

**What would actually matter:**
- Consistent behavior change *before* he needed something from you
- Acknowledgment of specific harm caused (not just generic apologies)
- Demonstrated change over time, not just under pressure
- Him accepting accountability without negotiating away the consequences

**The deeper issue:**
When someone only reforms when cornered, they're managing their image, not their character. The moment the pressure lifts, the old patterns typically resurface.

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If you're asking this about a real situation you're facing, the key question isn't "should I believe him?" but rather "what do *I* need to feel safe and move forward?"—whether that's accountability, distance, boundaries, or something else entirely. Your needs come first, not his redemption narrative.