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$BTC Although we have received data on the U.S. economy, oil prices remain high, with WTI crude trading at $112 per barrel, one of the highest levels in decades. It has nearly reached the levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis.
The longer these prices persist, the greater their impact on future inflation indicators, including CPI. We have not yet seen these geopolitical developments reflected in future economic and inflation data.
Positive economic data, such as low unemployment, combined with high oil prices, currently pose the greatest threat to asset markets. On the other hand, we

$BTC As we receive data on the U.S. economy, oil prices remain high, with WTI crude trading at $112 per barrel—one of the highest levels in the past few decades. This is nearly the same as the price levels during the 2008 financial crisis.
The longer these prices last, the greater their impact on future inflation indicators, including the CPI. We have yet to see these geopolitical developments reflected in the economic and inflation data going forward.
Positive economic data, such as low unemployment, and high oil prices currently pose the biggest threat to asset markets. On the other hand

Today we will release the U.S. unemployment rate and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data. These figures will provide us with more information about the state of the U.S. labor market. In the current market environment, with rising oil prices and increasing inflation risks, data on the U.S. economy has become more important than ever, as the threat of the Federal Reserve turning hawkish grows. Besides rising inflation, strong economic data can support the case for more restrictive policies. Weak economic performance limits the Fed's room to tighten, although if inflation spirals out of control, these

$BTC Tomorrow is Good Friday, and the US stock market will be closed, so today is the last trading day of the week. The next opening will be on Monday. The biggest hope now is that Trump won’t cause any trouble over the weekend, but I think everything that can be done, has already been done. The next three weeks may still mainly be driven by the conflict involving Iran. Today is also quite strange—oil prices have been surging upward, but US stocks have actually rebounded, and they might even rise to close.
Although tomorrow is a holiday, the non-farm payroll data will still be released. Althou

$BTC The market has reacted to news suggesting the possible end of the Middle East conflict. This has led to a decline in oil prices, and the DXY has also fallen accordingly. In fact, the market is pricing in the end of the war based on some headline news. It’s worth noting that we’ve seen similar headlines before, and many times they have proven to be false. Therefore, it’s advisable to view the charts from a higher time frame perspective and ignore the noise from lower time frames.
For BTC, we are currently retesting the 67K-70K zone, which remains a resistance area. If BTC can find accep

$BTC Just as the US stock market closed, Trump suddenly gave a speech, claiming that the war with Iran is nearing its end. I still believe what Trump said before last week, but I am skeptical about this latest statement, even though the US has sent more troops: even a ground war might not be able to directly defeat a country with over a thousand years of faith.
Looking at Bitcoin data, the turnover rate isn't high, and trading volume isn't significant either. It seems that the news of Iran's ceasefire has boosted market sentiment. While that's a good thing, I wonder if this sentiment will q

$BTC All media outlets are saying that Iran is preparing for a ceasefire. On one hand, reports indicate that these comments were made on March 30th, but the effects are only now being felt. After the news broke, oil prices instantly dropped, U.S. stocks immediately rebounded, jumping from a decline to over 3% gains. Even $BTC rose by more than 2%.
The actual situation now is less important because, right after the announcement, the U.S. continued to fire on Iran, and Iran also kept attacking the U.S. and its allies. At least, the war is not over. Iran’s diplomatic ambassador directly connec

$BTC The price of WTI crude oil directly broke through $95, which reflects the market's outright distrust. What's even more ironic is that Putin, who has always been considered a "brother" by Trump, is suspected of supporting Iran's military actions, yet these are still used against the United States. Trump and the Republican Party are probably going to have a tough time.
Looking at Bitcoin data, today's trading volume has surged significantly. I believe this is mainly due to distrust in Trump. Previously, there was hope for negotiations and investor confidence, but now it seems unlikely to

Headache. Trump’s behavior yesterday was already confusing, and today it’s even more perplexing. On one hand, he says Iran is no longer capable and is begging for negotiations, even sending a big gift to Trump that would allow ten ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. But after saying that, he was called out by the entire internet. In the past 24 hours, it seems that even suspected paid ships haven’t all passed, though I guess Trump meant those ten ships would pass in stages.
Additionally, Iran not only shows no signs of seeking peace but also strongly insists on retaining its nuclear

$BTC Yesterday's $ETH data was almost the same as $BTC, both being sold by BlackRock investors while Fidelity investors were buying. However, compared to Bitcoin's relatively lower volatility, ETH's fluctuations are larger. This is also the common saying: when prices rise, ETH's gains are bigger, but when prices fall, ETH's declines are also sharper.
This also indicates that investors' interest in ETH is more focused on financial returns, even short-term earnings, whereas Bitcoin investors have a higher tolerance. Overall, traditional investors are more interested in BTC, while ETH is more li

The S&P 500 index is still struggling to make significant gains, partly because oil prices have failed to continue declining. The previous all-time high region between 6,300 and 6,000 remains a medium-term target. I plan to buy a large amount of SPY later this year as a long-term investment because, in the long run, my bet will support the U.S. economy. Looking at SPY, since the start of the 2022 market cycle, it has been trading within a range, with identifiable upper and lower bounds. The $600 region remains a key area of focus, but I will also prepare for the lower end of the range, which c

$BTC When it comes to BTC's relative strength compared to GOLD, it's important to understand that this only occurs locally. BTC/GOLD has reacted strongly from the macro support zone we identified in February, and we used this as a resonance point to buy BTC spot, but we closed the position at break-even after reaching our first take-profit level. This resulted in BTC outperforming GOLD, in line with our plan. From a broader perspective, BTC remains in a downtrend relative to GOLD on the macro scale. It has now reached a resistance zone, which could serve as a bearish retest. I expect GOLD to

$BTC Besides technical indicators, we are also facing energy prices not seen since the peak of the last macro cycle. Higher energy and transportation costs often lead to economic recession and put greater pressure on risk assets, which does not create a favorable environment for their prosperity or new highs. In my view, whether Iran and the US reach a short-term agreement is less important than the potential medium-term impact of rising oil prices on policy and markets. However, these periods also present good buying opportunities, but technical indicators need to align as well.
That said,

It has been several weeks since the crypto market failed to make new lows, leading more people to believe that a macro bottom may have already arrived, especially considering BTC's recent relative strength compared to SPX or GOLD. It’s important to note that during macro bottoms, most people do not believe the bottom has already been reached. Most will lower their targets. If too many people believe the macro bottom has already arrived, then it’s unlikely to be real, just as most people did not believe BTC had peaked in October. The longer it takes for further declines, the more people believe

$BTC Recently, the data for spot ETFs has been almost dead. When the US releases some good news, a small number of investors start buying; once the news is disproved or new bad news emerges, they continue to sell. Currently, $BTC in the traditional market is just a small fluctuation game of chasing gains and selling on dips, with the price movements becoming smaller than gold and oil.
But even now, during a very uncertain period for investors, Bitcoin's stability is still quite good. At least, we can see that many investors have not panicked and sold off due to the negative impact of the wa

$BTC As long as there are no new clashes in the recent period, even without Iran declaring that negotiations have begun, a temporary ceasefire could still be priced in by risk markets, which would help significantly in easing sentiment.
Looking at Bitcoin's data, the turnover rate is not strong, and investor sentiment remains quite normal. Market participants may have already grown accustomed to the volatility brought by the war. Moreover, the price stability of $BTC around 70,000 has been quite solid, with accumulation consistently occurring in this range, and earlier investors show no signs

The biggest news today is that the United States has already or is currently seeking negotiations with Iran. According to multiple sources, the common information suggests a possible one-month ceasefire first, during which at minimum third-party vessels can pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz. Of course, this also benefits from Trump's TACO approach, allowing both sides to remain calmer. The rumored focus of negotiations is still to get Iran to abandon nuclear weapons, though Iran has not yet acknowledged that negotiations are underway.
Influenced by the negotiation news, WTI crude oil pr

$BTC This is because the crypto market is more driven by liquidity than other asset classes, as it lacks fundamental support like stocks or commodities. This makes it more forward-looking rather than reactive, while stocks and other markets react more slowly to these changes, relying more on current data and policy changes rather than pricing in macro tightening in advance. Through our technical analysis, we were able to predict this shift. In the chart below, you can see that BTC peaked and began its downtrend phase before financial conditions started to tighten(yields rose). When yields ris