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The United States seems to be changing its negotiation strategy, and the current goal is not a comprehensive peace agreement.
BlockBeats News, May 7 — The current goal for both the U.S. and Iran is a memorandum of understanding, not a comprehensive peace agreement, indicating that disagreements still exist between the two sides and that any agreement at this stage will be a transitional step. The U.S. government seems to be changing its negotiation strategy, which is to simplify the negotiation agenda, discuss easier issues first, and address the most contentious issues at a later stage.
According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the U.S. and Iran reaching a permanent peace agreement before May 15 is 34%, before May 31 is 47%, and before June 30 is 59%.