Fake surge alert! CryptoQuant: Bitcoin's April rally "full of speculation," may face correction

Bitcoin surged in April this year with unstoppable momentum, but behind the impressive rally, there may be hidden concerns. On-chain analysis firm CryptoQuant states that Bitcoin’s recent price spike is merely a “speculative rebound,” lacking fundamental buying support, with correction risks increasing daily. Investors should stay alert.
CryptoQuant research director Julio Moreno pointed out in a report that Bitcoin soared from $66k to a high of $79k in April, a 20% increase, but almost entirely driven by increased demand for perpetual futures; in contrast, the “spot demand” that truly reflects market fundamentals showed signs of contraction during this period. He said:

Throughout April, Bitcoin’s price increase was almost entirely driven by demand for perpetual futures, while spot demand continued to shrink. This structure (rising futures demand, shrinking spot demand) has historically been associated with unsustainable rallies in a bear market.

Julio Moreno emphasized that this divergence between futures and spot is one of the clearest on-chain signals of a “speculative rebound,” indicating that the price increase is mainly leveraged-driven rather than supported by genuine Bitcoin accumulation.

This kind of rally lacking structural fundamentals is doomed to be short-lived. Once futures positions are closed, it usually triggers a price correction.

Replaying the 2022 bear market?
CryptoQuant observed that the current market demand pattern dominated by perpetual contracts is very similar to the scene at the beginning of the 2022 bear market. While it cannot be definitively said that history will repeat, the current structure indeed carries “significant downside risk.”
CryptoQuant emphasizes that in a true bull market, the price reaching new highs must be accompanied by synchronized growth in spot demand:

If spot demand does not turn positive, any attempt to retake the previous high of $79k will struggle to break through due to lack of substantial on-chain support.

Additionally, combining multiple on-chain and market indicators, the “CryptoQuant Bull Market Index” (measured from 0 to 100, with above 50 bullish and below 50 bearish) fell from 50 to 40 in April, returning to the bear zone.
This confirms that after a speculative rally driven by perpetual futures, the on-chain fundamentals have deteriorated. CryptoQuant summarized:

A drop in the index to 40 indicates that market conditions are “turning bearish,” which historically often precedes continued price weakness.

As of press time, Bitcoin has strongly broken through the $80k mark, with a 2.5% increase over the past 24 hours. While celebrating the new high, investors should also heighten their alertness and prepare for potential market reversals.