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This week's macro outlook: US-Iran negotiations enter a new phase, and economic data may reinforce dovish stance
BlockBeats News. On May 4, the US-Iran negotiations over the weekend showed signs of positive easing, while the US, Israel, and Iran are still making “war preparations.” With Trump kicking off “Freedom Action,” the struggle for control of the Strait of Hormuz will also see a major turning point this week. Therefore, with both “negotiations” and “war” hanging by a thread, market nerves this week will remain highly tense.
On the macro front, traders next week will focus on US employment data, especially the non-farm report on Friday. Details are as follows:
Wednesday 20:15, US April ADP employment figures;
Thursday 19:30, US April Challenger companies layoffs;
Thursday 23:00, US April New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations;
Friday 20:30, US April unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted non-farm employment, average hourly earnings year-over-year/month-over-month;
Friday 22:00, US May one-year inflation expectations initial value, US May University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index initial value, US March wholesale sales month-over-month.
Forecast analysts expect that the April non-farm employment report to be released next Friday will show steady growth of 60,000 new jobs, faster wage growth, a stable unemployment rate, and an increase in the labor force participation rate. According to Bloomberg’s survey of economists, private-sector employment growth may be even stronger.