$BTC DXY and EURUSD continue to be the center of our macro analysis, with both following our macro plan from the past few months. We have discussed DXY extensively over the past few days, so there is no need to add more content. In EURUSD, which presents a reverse correlation logically with DXY, a 2-week bearish divergence at the macro range highs has become the top of the index, which I believe will be the top for months/years.

The euro is likely to enter a downtrend relative to the dollar, and historically this has not provided the best returns for speculative markets. This does not necessarily mean that all asset markets will enter a bear market, but it will affect relative strength. You can already see how volatile VIX has been since EURUSD hit local highs a few weeks ago. Currently, EURUSD is sitting at some local support at 1.154, while DXY remains below the 100 region. These two macro areas should inform all investors' future actions.

If EURUSD is accepted below 1.154, it will open the path to 1.12, which was a period of strong euro performance relative to the dollar. This will significantly impact hedging behavior, attracting capital away from financial markets. Much of this will depend on the current oil crisis, particularly how the Fed will interpret it. Next week we will hold the FOMC meeting, and the market expects the Fed to take a hawkish stance, opening the door to rate hikes, which also means the dollar may cool again if expectations fail to fully materialize.