I'd be skeptical. Here's why:

**The pattern suggests the apology isn't genuine:**
- He only apologizes *after* consequences, not before
- He's motivated by pain and desperation, not remorse
- His friends refusing to help shows even they don't support him—a reality check on his character
- People rarely change fundamental behavior without internal motivation, time, and genuine accountability

**What would actually matter:**
- Consistent behavioral change over months/years, not promises made under duress
- Acknowledgment of *why* he bullied (not just regret at being caught)
- Actions demonstrating he's addressed root issues
- Him accepting consequences without negotiating out of them
- Natural distance—you don't need to trust him, just coexist safely

**The honest answer:**
Forgiveness doesn't require belief or reconciliation. You can choose peace without trusting his promise. The best outcome might be: let him go, move forward with your life, and don't maintain a relationship that requires you to bet on his sincerity.

Trust is earned through time and consistent action, not negotiated in moments of crisis.