"Stock Market Guru" Trump Plays Another Hand, Softens Stance Before 48-Hour Deadline #Gate13周年全球庆典

On March 23, President Trump issued a high-profile 48-hour ultimatum to Iran over the weekend on Truth Social: "If Iran does not fully and peacefully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, the U.S. military will strike and completely destroy all of Iran's power plants, starting with the largest one!" This "hardcore" statement quickly pushed up global oil prices, with Brent crude surging at one point, market panic sentiment rising, and U.S. stocks coming under pressure. Iran responded aggressively, stating that if its energy facilities are attacked, it will retaliate against all U.S. and Israeli energy and water facilities in the Middle East.

However, just before the ultimatum deadline and ahead of U.S. stock market opening on Monday, Trump's stance took a dramatic 180-degree reversal: he ordered a halt to bombing Iranian power plants and announced a temporary 5-day ceasefire, opening a window for negotiations.

This "hard followed by soft" move instantly reversed the market, with oil prices falling back and stocks rebounding. Investors familiar with Trump's style have already summarized this pattern as the "TACO trade" (Trump Always Chickens Out). As early as during the 2025 tariff war, this acronym became popular on Wall Street: Trump frequently makes tough threats to create panic and drive down asset prices, then "backs down" or delays, causing markets to rebound rapidly for profits. This Iran incident is seen as the latest version of TACO: first applying extreme pressure causing oil prices/risk assets to surge, then quickly softening, triggering short covering and risk asset rebounds.

Some analysts point out that this "high open, low close" manipulation technique has become one of the signature styles of Trump's second term, especially proving effective when geopolitical and trade negotiations run in parallel on two fronts. Currently, the U.S.-Israel war against Iran has entered its 4th week, the Strait of Hormuz remains not fully open, and signs of ground troop movements are obvious, but whether Trump's "bombing pause + 5-day ceasefire" is merely another round of TACO or a genuine shift toward diplomatic resolution still requires observation of developments over the next 48 hours.