1. Avoiding risk by thinking you understand something is not true risk management. Real risk comes from cognitive blind spots. Managing unpredictable unknowns is true risk avoidance (the former is like animals foraging in the wild). The difference between these two is like a chasm—naturally resulting in one reaching heaven and the other descending to hell.

2. When you start automatically lowering your return requirements, investment begins to mature. Small capital with large returns doesn't yield much, large capital with small returns yields plenty. Lowering returns maintains stability, and maintaining stability inevitably requires "foolish moves" and "foolish persistence." Maintaining stability preserves long-termism. Nobody wants to get rich slowly, but impatient people will quickly impoverish themselves. Lower returns + pursuing stability + pursuing long-term compounding demonstrates high cognition, grand vision, and great wisdom appearing as foolishness.

3. Iran being attacked is certainly bearish news. Whether it can quickly move toward peace and stability remains unknown, but what is certain is that through this conflict, China has discerned that America's exterior strength conceals interior emptiness—genuinely long-term bullish and beneficial for reclaiming ww. Applied to investment strategy, we cannot flee at the sight of short-term bearish news and forget long-term bullish factors. "One yin and one yang constitute the way"—how to balance the principal contradiction and grasp the key point is crucial. Running at bearish signals, chasing at bullish signals, trying to catch both ends results in getting counterattacked instead. Better to firmly grasp the primary trend—though effects emerge slowly, it's stable, enduring, and without fear of risk.

4. Quantitative trading is like court eunuchs—developing rapidly when the court needs them, but once the system becomes bloated and an uncontrollable money-devouring beast, it will inevitably be hunted down. The market's normal capacity for quantitative trading is several hundred billion, but massive quant institutions exceeding hundred billion have emerged, making the actual overall scale tens of trillions—taking up increasing daily trading volume, so much so that several securities trading firms this week lost so heavily they'd written surrender letters. This is a signal. Perhaps at some point, quantitative trading will be dealt with. Currently, small-cap stocks average over 100x P/E ratios—everyone must be careful. Regarding quant trading, you can learn its methodology but only trust it reasonably, never dogmatically believe in it.

5. America's large institutions like Blue Owl, BlackRock, and Blackstone's private credit funds may ultimately trigger defaults that ripple globally across high-tech sectors. First, tech has led gains for long; second, these institutions are major shareholders of mainstream American tech stocks—when capital-starved, they'll inevitably divest. Tech stocks transmit impacts rapidly, so I recommend avoiding them.

6. US debt has exceeded 39 trillion dollars—problematic in the short term. China still holds over 600 billion in US debt. If concentrated selling occurs, it becomes that miraculous "killer" straw. US debt has no solution, neither can the dollar be saved. Attacking Iran merely temporarily blocked dollar depreciation; long-term, it will still depreciate significantly. Therefore, don't covet the high interest rates on dollars and Hong Kong dollars.

7. In the second year of World War II, stock markets surged; in 1930 following the 1929 economic crisis, markets rebounded sharply; crisis contains opportunity within danger—no need for excessive caution. Just believe in China, believe in value, and with your own unshakeable strategy, success is assured!

PS: Because you believe, you see; not because you see, you believe! That's it!