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On March 19, 3 accounts on Polymarket invested $9,400 betting on "whether there will be a new national attack on Iran before April," with the current probability at 24%. The Saudi Foreign Minister and the British government made statements on this and condemned Iran's attacks on Gulf states.

On March 16, prediction market Polymarket showed that bets against "U.S. military intervention in Iran before April" surged notably, with someone investing $83,600 to successfully boost the probability to 73%. Trump plans to establish an international coalition to ensure Strait of Hormuz security; however, Gulf states deny providing military operation support. Despite Iran's attacks on Israel and U.S. military bases, the U.S. response remains focused on maintaining Strait of Hormuz navigation and similar measures.

On March 12, PolyBeats detected two high win-rate addresses betting on a prediction market that "the US and Iran will not cease fire before May," with a combined investment of $15,000 at a current price of 52.5¢. Meanwhile, Iran escalated attacks on Gulf shipping, bringing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to a standstill, with analysts seeing no signs of de-escalation.