A tempestade de independência do Federal Reserve aumenta, o BTC consegue manter o suporte crucial?

【区块律动】Recent discussions about the Federal Reserve are heating up. Trump has once again criticized Powell, accusing him of “incompetence or corruption,” coinciding with the Department of Justice investigating the Fed’s headquarters renovation case. This wave of public pressure has shifted the power struggle between the White House and the Federal Reserve from behind the scenes to the forefront. The independence of the central bank has suddenly become the main focus of the entire market.

Interestingly, the market’s pricing of rate cuts is not very aggressive. Although inflation data has indeed eased, based on interest rate futures, most believe that the Fed will not move until mid-year at the earliest, and it won’t cut rates many times throughout the year. This indicates that investors are well aware: institutional stability and anchored inflation expectations are more important than any political statements.

More importantly, the European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Canada have all come out to support the Fed, publicly backing its policy independence. Major institutions on Wall Street are also sounding the alarm — if political forces truly interfere with monetary policy, inflation expectations will rise again, long-term interest rates will soar, and bonds and risk assets will suffer accordingly.

From the perspective of the crypto market, this is not just a personnel dispute but a market re-evaluation of confidence in the entire monetary system. Currently, there are two key macro variables: how long can high interest rates be maintained, and how much credibility do policymakers still have? In the short term, BTC should focus on the key support level at 91031, with the main resistance at 97237. If doubts about central bank independence continue to spread, the volatility of the dollar and real interest rates will increase, amplifying fluctuations in crypto assets; conversely, once the market confirms that monetary policy is not influenced by politics, BTC still has the opportunity to resume its upward trend after completing its structural adjustment. During this period, it is crucial to closely monitor how the macro story unfolds, as it directly impacts the market’s risk appetite.