Drake Drops $1.5M USDT Bet on Argentina Despite Spain's World Cup Edge

Rap superstar Drake has placed a $1.5 million bet in USDT on Argentina to beat Spain in Sunday’s FIFA World Cup final, a wager that could pay out roughly $5.175 million if Lionel Messi’s team wins in regulation or extra time.

Key Takeaways

• Drake bet $1.5 million in USDT on Argentina at +245 odds through Stake ahead of the July 19 final.
• Drake has lost $5.7 million in public bets since Kendrick Lamar’s Euphoria dropped on April 30, 2024.
• Polymarket traders put $158 million on Argentina even as Kalshi prices Spain as the 59% favorite.

The rapper placed the bet through Stake, the crypto betting platform he has partnered with since a reported $100 million deal in 2022, at odds of +245. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET on July 19 in a final that pits Argentina’s bid for back-to-back titles against a young Spain side built around Lamine Yamal. Drake shared the slip publicly, a habit that has made his win-loss record a running storyline across social media.

A Track Record Built on Volume, Not Consistency

Drake has placed 87 tracked public bets since February 2022, wagering $38.72 million and collecting $37.17 million in returns, for a net loss of $1.56 million, according to data compiled by thedrakecurse.com. According to the site’s data, he has won 32 of those bets, a strike rate of 36.8%, with an average stake of $445,080.

The betting platform Stake sharing Drake’s bet on X on Saturday. Soccer has been his weakest category, costing him $1.67 million across his bets, including a $1 million wager on Argentina against France in the 2022 final that lost on a technicality tied to extra time, even though Argentina won the match. Cricket is the only sport where he shows a clear profit, up $997,500.

UFC events draw the most action from him, with $14.45 million placed across 26 bets, a category that includes a $1.45 million win on Jon Jones and a $1.595 million loss on Israel Adesanya. The losses have piled up since April 30, 2024, when Kendrick Lamar released “Euphoria” and reignited a rap feud that coincided with a rough betting stretch.

Drake is down $5.7 million across his public wagers since that date, a stretch that includes a $1 million loss on Conor McGregor against Max Holloway this July and a $1 million loss backing the Patriots in the 2026 Super Bowl.

The ‘Drake Curse’ Meets Messi’s Second Act

Online, the bet has revived talk of the “Drake Curse,” the idea that teams and athletes he backs tend to lose. The pattern traces back to his support of Kentucky basketball in 2013 and Serena Williams at the 2015 U.S. Open, both of which ended in upsets, and continued through Alabama’s 2019 title-game loss and the Golden State Warriors’ collapse in the 2016 NBA Finals.

Thedrakecurse.com counts roughly 11 instances where he bet on a clear favorite that went on to lose, including the Oklahoma City Thunder at -270 odds in the 2025 NBA Finals. Drake addressed the reputation directly in a Stake advertisement, saying he does not believe in a “curse” and calling himself a flawed bettor, pointing to the Toronto Raptors’ 2019 championship as evidence against it.

Analysts who track his betting record note that his highest-profile losses draw more attention than his wins, which skews public perception even as his overall numbers show real variance across hundreds of millions of dollars in action.

Prediction Markets Split on the Outcome

The day before the big match, prediction markets show a decent gap between the betting favorite and where the money is flowing. On Polymarket, the World Cup winner contract has drawn $4.28 billion in total volume as of July 18, with Spain priced at 59 cents per share and Argentina at 40 cents, after narrowing from a field of more than 50 teams.

Despite Spain’s higher implied probability, Polymarket traders have committed more dollars to Argentina. The platform shows $158 million staked on an Argentina win against $123.5 million on Spain, meaning the underdog is pulling more capital even though it trails in win probability.

Kalshi‘s separate Spain-versus-Argentina market shows a similar lean toward Spain as the favorite. The exchange prices Spain at 59%, paying 1.65x on a win, and Argentina at roughly 41%, paying 2.34x. Reported volume figures for the Kalshi market vary by source, ranging from $1.25 billion to $1.29 billion, so the exact total remains unconfirmed.

What a Win or Loss Means for Drake

An Argentina win would net Drake roughly $3.67 million in profit on this single bet, enough to erase most of his losses since the 2024 losing stretch began. A Spain win would add another data point to the curse narrative and push his soccer losses well past $2.5 million.

Drake’s Stake partnership has kept his bets in public view through livestreams and social posts. The arrangement has also drawn scrutiny, including lawsuits alleging the promotions glamorize gambling to younger audiences, claims Drake has pushed back on publicly.

For traders watching the crypto betting and prediction market space, the final offers a real-time test of how celebrity wagers move alongside decentralized markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, where odds shift continuously with trading volume rather than sitting fixed at a single sportsbook line.