Guo Ming-chi: MediaTek exclusively secures the order for Google's TPU v9 new chip, refuting Changxin Storage rumors

Ming-Chi Kuo pointed out that MediaTek has exclusively secured the new Google TPU v9 chip order, expected to mass produce in 2028. At the same time, he also refuted rumors circulating in the market that Google will purchase memory chips from Changxin Memory.

Is Google deepening collaboration with MediaTek on TPU v9 chips, developing Triggerfish?

Renowned semiconductor analyst Ming-Chi Kuo's latest industry investigation indicates that Google will deepen its cooperation with MediaTek to develop an upgraded chip codenamed Triggerfish based on the TPU v9 architecture. MediaTek has already secured this higher-priced new order exclusively.

Ming-Chi Kuo states that Triggerfish is positioned as a more inference-capable revision, which can simultaneously alleviate CPU and memory performance bottlenecks, further confirming MediaTek as Google's top partner for the TPU v9 generation.

The difference between Triggerfish and the existing Humufish chip lies in the fact that the new version's SRAM capacity is significantly increased to 2 to 3 times the original, upgraded with HBM4E memory and added analog bare die.

The analog bare die function covers local TPU management and switching between training and inference modes, with a key focus on reinforcement learning and AI agent collaboration. The larger SRAM capacity helps retain active working sets locally on the TPU, reducing data transfer costs and improving decoding efficiency.

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In terms of shipment volume, Ming-Chi Kuo estimates that, based on Humufish maintaining 4 to 5 million units shipped, Google has additionally ordered 1 to 2 million Triggerfish chips.

The new chip is expected to be produced by the end of 2027 and ramp up in 2028. Since Triggerfish's unit price is about 30% higher than Humufish, it is expected to inject new momentum into MediaTek's operations in 2028.

Market rumors that Google is considering purchasing Changxin Memory's DRAM chips

On the other hand, recent market reports suggest that Google is evaluating purchasing DRAM chips from the Chinese memory manufacturer Changxin Memory.

Foreign media outlets Wccftech and Chain News reported that the news was first leaked by the X platform account SouthernValue, and later reposted by analyst Jukan. When asked about the source, SouthernValue only replied with the name of Google's parent company, Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai, but the source remains anonymous and has not been officially confirmed.

Driven by AI demand, memory prices continue to rise. Considering the limited shipment volume of Pixel phones and security reviews of cloud infrastructure, outside speculation suggests that if Google purchases chips made in China, the deal may be related to the next-generation TPU products.

Foreign media reports indicate that Google plans to increase Humufish production to 3.5 million units by the end of 2028, or set a shipment target of 3 million units for the tenth-generation TPU Icefish, showing urgent demand for memory.

The timing of these rumors also coincides with Changxin Memory's expansion plans. The company plans to increase monthly wafer capacity from about 200k to 300k by the end of 2026. Reuters also pointed out that the U.S. has recently paused listing Changxin Memory and other entities on the blacklist.

Facing rising costs, Apple CEO Tim Cook also admitted in an interview that all supply options should be evaluated.

The rumors could shake up the market landscape; Ming-Chi Kuo posts to refute procurement plans

Analysts suggest that if the news of Google purchasing memory from Changxin Memory is true, it could break the current monopoly dominated by Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron, triggering a chain reaction of other tech giants seeking alternatives.

However, Ming-Chi Kuo publicly refuted this rumor on the X platform. He emphasized that his latest industry investigation results differ from market rumors, and Google currently has no clear plans to purchase memory chips from Changxin Memory.