Serenity: AAOI's bullish outlook emphasizes the supply and demand imbalance in optical modules and the AI computing power bottleneck, with long-term growth expectations extending to 2028

BlockBeats News, June 17 — Serenity posted on social media in response to the bearish sentiment towards optical module company AAOI, stating that it still maintains a high-confidence bullish stance and believes that the market's pessimistic expectations for the stock are biased.

Its core logic revolves around the structural supply and demand gap in the AI infrastructure chain: he pointed out that the industry is currently constrained by high-end laser and optical module capacity, while AMD and large cloud providers' demand for high-speed optical interconnects continues to rise, and the overall AI computing ecosystem remains constrained by supply bottlenecks dominated by NVDA.

This view suggests that the United States has key capacity advantages in the supply chain for 800G/1.6T optical modules and related transceivers, but overall supply and demand are still in a state of significant tension, with some high-end packaging and assembly relying on outsourcing in Asia.

Regarding performance expectations, the investor mentioned that the company may reach an annualized revenue scale of approximately $560 million (based on ARR estimates) by 2027, and believes that the current market capitalization still does not fully reflect long-term growth potential, with some key volume expansion cycles possibly extending into 2028.

At the same time, this view highlights short-term volatility risks, including potential ATM secondary offerings and sentiment swings driven by industry news, and suggests that analysis reports and market rumors about peers like LITE could have a linked impact on the entire optical communications sector.

Overall, this bullish narrative continues to bet on the "optical interconnect bottleneck" during the AI computing expansion cycle, and believes that the market currently underestimates the medium- to long-term growth pace.