1. NASDAQ Index (IXIC) Analysis

1. Overnight Market Overview

Closing level: 26,376.34, down 1.15% for the day, a drop of 307.6 points
Severe divergence across the market: the Dow hits a record high (funds rotate into value blue chips), while the NASDAQ and semiconductors sell off across the board; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunges 5.71%, AMD, Micron, and Intel fall 6%-8%, Nvidia drops 2.37%, and Microsoft and Tesla pull back in sync. Only Apple, Google, and Meta finish slightly higher.

2. Core Fundamental Logic

Bullish factors

1. Easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, sharp drop in oil prices, and cooling inflation expectations
As the conflict in the Middle East eases, crude oil falls sharply in a single day. The market lowers its Q3 oil price expectations, weakening the Federal Reserve’s hawkish rate-hike momentum. Over the long term, this is positive for high-valuation growth stocks.

2. The long-term favorable outlook for the AI industry remains unchanged
Sustained demand exists for computing power, cloud computing, and paid software subscriptions. The earnings “center of gravity” for tech giants continues to move upward. This sharp sell-off is profit-taking rather than a deterioration in fundamentals.

3. The market is betting that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in June
CME’s rate instruments price a 98.5% probability of no rate hike in June, with no further tightening shock in the near term.

Bearish dominance (main reason for this round of pullback)

1. The duration of high interest rates exceeds expectations
May’s non-farm employment surged far above expectations. The market is pricing in nearly no rate cuts for all of 2026, with extremely limited room for rate cuts before 2027. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is trading at elevated levels with choppy movement, which suppresses tech stock valuations (growth stocks are highly sensitive to discount rates).

2. Huge gains during the year, with profit-taking concentrated
The NASDAQ is up nearly 30% year-to-date. In the AI and chip sectors, gains have doubled. Leveraged funds take profits in large batches on negative news, creating a “sell everything” situation where selling accelerates.

3. Rotation in fund positioning
Funds rotate out of high-volatility tech growth stocks and into defensive areas such as high-dividend banks, industrials, and consumer value stocks. The Dow keeps setting new highs while the NASDAQ weakens, forming a clear offset.

3. Key Technical Levels

• Short-term resistance: 26,700-26,800 (previous high; the overnight opening range—first resistance on the rebound)

• Short-term support: 26,300 (overnight low); strong support at 25,800 (the recent trading range’s center of gravity—if broken, it will open up more room for a deeper pullback)

• Trend outlook: The short term has entered a period of consolidation and corrective adjustment. It remains on the weak side until it effectively holds above 26,800. Only if U.S. Treasury yields keep falling will the upward trend restart.
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