Tonight, the FOMC decision day.

I admit, the first thing I do every morning this week is check FedWatch.
Yesterday, there was a 97% chance of holding steady, and the market has already taken "maintaining 3.50-3.75%" as a given.
But tonight's true direction will be decided at 3:30 when Warsh first takes the stage.
The March dot plot still implied one more rate cut this year, but now the market has turned around—CME shows the probability of a rate hike this year surging to around 70%.
This gap is the hole that tonight’s press conference needs to fill.
Warsh's Senate confirmation vote was a narrow 51-45 victory, the narrowest since his nomination.
Wall Street is eager to know whether this "hawkish veteran" will start by reassuring the market with hawkish words or quietly pull back.
My own judgment: there probably won't be big moves tonight, but any wording from Warsh about the "dot plot" could be amplified and interpreted.
Once the two o'clock statement is out, I won't move immediately; I’ll wait until the start of the 30-minute press conference to decide whether to adjust #FOMC positions.