Why does gold often fall instead of rise during a war crisis? Deutsche Bank reveals the core trading logic behind it:

• The initial decline is due to liquidity squeezes: At the onset of a crisis, institutions often sell high-liquidity assets like gold to raise cash, in response to margin pressures caused by a stock market plunge. This leads to a dip in gold prices in the early stages of the crisis.
• The safe-haven effect has a clear lag: Genuine safe-haven buying only occurs after the panic subsides. Historical data shows that the peak of crisis premiums usually appears 15 to 20 trading days after the event. Reacting immediately to news by chasing prices can easily result in short-term unrealized losses.
• The core support comes from genuine structural demand: Deutsche Bank points out that current gold prices have significantly outperformed the implied pricing of the US dollar. This resilience, despite a strong dollar that "should fall but doesn't," proves that there is real demand behind gold that is independent of safe-haven sentiment.