3.4 Continue with planned trades; what can a stock market crash do to me?

Like and then watch, earning millions daily. Keep it up with tips and good luck always! [Taogu Ba]
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First, an overview of the market**

Let’s start with a quick reflection on the morning session. Is today’s forecast truly valuable? Regarding computing power, external influences are significant, so I said we can only watch whether domestic computing power exceeds expectations. Yesterday’s Huawei-related movements at the close led to a strong opening for domestic computing power today, but there’s definitely a structural issue. Beijing Ke Rui, which was confident yesterday, didn’t perform at the open; instead, the first move was a surge + recognition-based grouping. When the position isn’t needed, the strength of domestic computing power is questionable. Then there’s the tech sector’s bottom-fishing—definitely not the right time. Only the US-Iran talks have settled, and only then will tech launch a full attack; otherwise, big funds are afraid of mid-attack surprises.
So today, from a secondary perspective, focus on opportunities in oil and gas front-runners, provided external war tensions haven’t eased, and before divergence intervenes in the front ranks. Unexpectedly, Intercontinental Oil & Gas and Shandong Molong both offered entry opportunities today. But one point: the back ranks should absolutely not be entered; only the front ranks have a chance for active play and sector rotation. The back ranks mostly decline, with fewer gains.

Regarding continuous limit-ups, yesterday hit three boards, again at a low point, but today there’s a recovery expectation. Three-in-four, with Water Development Gas’s order book meeting expectations—after yesterday’s fermentation of many gas stocks, the unexpected part was the three big oil companies. Despite their large market caps, they opened near the limit-down, causing a sharp decline. The current market is very extreme—large caps behaving like small stocks. Yasheng Group, which was heavily sold yesterday, opened red today, exceeding expectations. Also note, Yunnan Energy Investment surged sharply yesterday then fell back; logically, it was a resistance break-through, but today it nearly hit the limit-up again, showing some recovery overall. So, the three-in-four also benefited from Yunnan Energy.

The least expected is the two-in-three. Yesterday’s promotion rate was nearly 50%, but today only two front-runners advanced. The volume increase clearly aided the rise and fall. Previously, I mentioned that if an ETF hits the limit, it’s a risk signal because the sector becomes too uniform, risking a stampede during declines. The oil ETF hitting two consecutive limits is a risk signal, though today the divergence was unexpectedly large. China National Petroleum’s market cap of 2 trillion yuan was quickly pushed to the limit-down and then recovered; intra-day volatility for Tongyuan Petroleum was also huge.
So, current market conditions require some reserve—if you like this sector, beware of continuous surges; don’t try to catch the last bit, as it can easily turn into a loss.

For the first-in-two stocks, the promotion rate is also very low because the nodes are fundamentally wrong. Beijing Ke Rui today exemplifies sector strength: yesterday’s limit-up was proactive, and in the afternoon, computing power retreated but remained firm. Today, Huawei’s computing power attempted an early attack; logically, funds should have pushed it higher, but they didn’t. Instead, they pushed Huasheng Tiancheng and Yunnan Energy, while the position wasn’t needed. First, the node is wrong; funds don’t want to buy in the first-in-two stage, and in a gap, they may need to re-allocate. Second, the strength of computing power isn’t right; funds see it as recovery, not attack, so the strength doesn’t support continuation.

Morning strategy: Water Development Gas fermented a large number of first boards yesterday, requiring a one-word push, with larger orders than yesterday—meeting expectations. For the three-in-four, look for over-expected premium stocks, like Yasheng, which led to a rise in tungsten and agriculture sectors today. This is worth watching: bottom-fishing for the four major tungsten stocks or in agriculture can both be arbitrage opportunities.

Oil and gas today showed severe divergence in bidding, with orders concentrated in front-runners, but only Intercontinental Oil & Gas’s orders were larger than yesterday, indicating significant divergence. Tech stocks with over-expected bids included Baiwei Storage, which opened with 1.8 billion in orders and continued to have orders at 920, showing boldness. Yunnan Energy Holdings also opened red today, signaling support for computing and power sectors, with good early momentum, but later dragged down by the broader market. Be cautious: most tech stocks are recovering and exiting, so chasing computing power today could be risky due to risk aversion, leading to declines. Yesterday’s computing power already consumed bullish energy; today’s failed attempt indicates risk accumulation.

Looking at bidding info: Intercontinental Oil & Gas’s orders are slightly larger than yesterday—just a bit, within expectations, as yesterday’s sector was very strong and dominated by one leader. Baiwei Storage’s 1.8 billion bid is interesting; yesterday, profit estimates were around 1.8 billion, matching the bid. The quality of front-rank orders in oil and gas is decent, but at 916, the back ranks’ orders are not right—ideally, they should be several billion, but they’re only around two billion, which is suspicious. By 919, Intercontinental Molong, Water Development, and China Merchants Nanhai’s orders are larger than yesterday, indicating sector divergence.

At 920, Baiwei Storage still had a one-word bid, exceeding expectations; normally, bids are risk-averse and withdrawn early. China Merchants Nanhai’s orders are smaller than yesterday, but Intercontinental Oil & Gas’s orders are larger, while Molong’s are smaller—showing only Intercontinental strengthening, others weakening. This suggests divergence rather than sector differentiation: front-rank stocks continue to support, back ranks fall behind, but divergence means all front-rank stocks might open lower. At 925, the warning is to watch for front-rank opportunities, consistent with the morning reflection plan. Given the external environment, only the front ranks of oil and gas are worth watching; risk control is essential, and tech stocks are harder to participate in later.

At 926, Yunnan Energy opened red, a true sign of a weak-to-strong turnaround, but yesterday’s break caused more trapped positions. With the market and sector unstable, it again surged, indicating increased risk. He Shiyou yesterday followed the sector, but sector divergence caused it to open high and then fall, signaling risk. Those paying attention should avoid falling into traps. Sector underperformance led to a likely drop, especially with illogical moves like riding on stocks without fundamentals.

At 941, I saw that front-rank stocks like Intercontinental Molong could be bought, so back ranks have no value. This aligns with the morning reflection: today, focusing on front-rank oil and gas is a bet on external war continuation; back ranks won’t resist declines, and if they fall, the drop won’t be gentle.

At 10:00, Yasheng hit the board, with bidding exceeding expectations, then quickly recovered in tungsten sector, fermenting agriculture. But Yasheng’s Gansu stock lagged, hinting at repeated volatility in oil and gas. Despite heavy declines, many oil and gas stocks rebounded, with Tongyuan Petroleum moving from deep water to red.

Overall market review today: oil and gas bids underperformed, divergence turned into split opinions. Tech stocks seized the opportunity for a recovery wave, but as I mentioned in the comments, most weak stocks only saw minor recovery without breaking key supports; recovery is a selling point. Only proactive front-rank stocks can be viewed positively. Yesterday’s volume-increasing bullish engulfing pattern shrank significantly today, indicating yesterday’s funds were fleeing, and today they haven’t returned—volume dried up. In such a low-volume environment, the most common pattern is rotation like a fan. Tech stocks surged early, but most retreated after gains. The market became dull; overall, it outperformed some small foreign markets, with some support during trading, but external declines still affected sentiment, and intra-market selling pressure wasn’t fully released. Now, funds are again cautious; tech and safe-haven resources are easily influenced by external news. Funds are lurking, and as long as the Two Sessions mention new themes, expect large movements soon. If news comes after market close, early overnight participation is advisable. In the afternoon, stocks related to intelligent automation moved in bulk—likely quant-driven, as the main conference themes haven’t emerged yet. Following the AI-related surge, power grid equipment also saw increased activity, probably due to multiple factors detected by quant algorithms. Ultimately, funds realized that nothing is strong; oil and gas rebounded on news, so focus on external signals.

Overall, today’s low-volume rotation saw oil and gas reacting to news, while tech seized opportunities for recovery. As I said in the comments, most weak stocks only saw minor recovery without breaking key supports; recovery is a selling point. Only proactive front-rank stocks are worth watching. Yesterday’s volume-increasing bullish pattern shrank sharply today, indicating funds were fleeing yesterday and haven’t come back, leading to dried-up volume. In such a market, the typical pattern is rotation like a fan. Tech stocks surged early, but most retreated after gains. The market became dull; overall, it outperformed some small foreign markets, with some support during trading, but external declines still affected sentiment, and intra-market selling pressure wasn’t fully released. Now, funds are again cautious; tech and safe-haven resources are easily influenced by external news. Funds are lurking, and as long as the Two Sessions mention new themes, expect large movements soon. If news comes after market close, early overnight participation is advisable. In the afternoon, stocks related to intelligent automation moved in bulk—likely quant-driven, as the main conference themes haven’t emerged yet. Following the AI-related surge, power grid equipment also saw increased activity, probably due to multiple factors detected by quant algorithms. Ultimately, funds realized that nothing is strong; oil and gas rebounded on news, so focus on external signals.

Overall, today’s low-volume rotation saw oil and gas reacting to news, while tech seized opportunities for recovery. As I said in the comments, most weak stocks only saw minor recovery without breaking key supports; recovery is a selling point. Only proactive front-rank stocks are worth watching. Yesterday’s volume-increasing bullish pattern shrank sharply today, indicating funds were fleeing yesterday and haven’t come back, leading to dried-up volume. In such a market, the typical pattern is rotation like a fan. Tech stocks surged early, but most retreated after gains. The market became dull; overall, it outperformed some small foreign markets, with some support during trading, but external declines still affected sentiment, and intra-market selling pressure wasn’t fully released. Now, funds are again cautious; tech and safe-haven resources are easily influenced by external news. Funds are lurking, and as long as the Two Sessions mention new themes, expect large movements soon. If news comes after market close, early overnight participation is advisable. In the afternoon, stocks related to intelligent automation moved in bulk—likely quant-driven, as the main conference themes haven’t emerged yet. Following the AI-related surge, power grid equipment also saw increased activity, probably due to multiple factors detected by quant algorithms. Ultimately, funds realized that nothing is strong; oil and gas rebounded on news, so focus on external signals.