The point of ultra-short trading after the emotional ice age! (Repost from 2026.03.04 review)

Data Review: [Taogu Ba]
Today’s Shanghai Composite Index -0.98%, ChiNext Index -1.41%, STAR Market 50 Index -0.49%, total trading volume across both markets: 2,365.7 billion yuan, 1,745 stocks rose, 3,640 stocks fell, market-wide trading volume decreased by 7,637 billion yuan compared to yesterday.

Overall Market Sentiment: Partial Recovery
Number of limit-up stocks: 44 (yesterday: 76)
Number of stocks with 20% limit-up: 7 (yesterday: 8)
Number of consecutive limit-up stocks: 6 (yesterday: 36)
Number of limit-down stocks: 11 (yesterday: 53)
Today’s break rate (炸板率): 30.1% (yesterday: 24%)
Today’s first limit-up success rate: 0% (yesterday: 47.7%)

Today’s Major Stocks with Large Drop
Heshun Petroleum -14%, Oil Sector
Before 9:45 AM opening, whether large drop stocks can quickly recover is an auxiliary signal for sector recovery.

Today’s High Volume Surprising Stocks in Bidding
Yunnan Energy Holdings

Overall Sector Chain Summary:
4-Board: Shuita Gas (Gas), Yasheng Group (Planting)
3-Board: SINOPEC Oilfield Services (Oil), Intercontinental Oil & Gas (Oil), Shandong Molong (Oil), Zhunyou Co., Ltd. (Oil)

1. Sentiment Cycle and Key Node Analysis:
Significant reduction in limit-up stocks in low-price zones, a large increase in consecutive board stocks in low-price zones, increased break rate, significant decrease in limit-down stocks in mid-high zones, the total trading amount of limit-up stocks/market total ratio: 0.26 in low-price zones—clear changes compared to yesterday, indicating diminishing loss effects, while trading sentiment remains sluggish, signaling market funds are lying flat. Currently, the market is at a chaotic cycle with emotional lows.

Sentiment Temperature: Level 10 (Ice Point)

Tomorrow’s Short-term Market Sentiment Anchored Stocks:
Yunnan Energy Holdings, Zhangyuan Tungsten
Before 9:45 AM, the positive/negative feedback and extreme sentiment anchoring of these stocks will signal market bullish or bearish sentiment temperature.

Recent Strong Sectors, Most Strong Sector Today, and Intra-day Recognizable Stocks:

2. Capital Flow Analysis:

Loss Effect -
Concentrated in sectors related to geopolitical tensions such as oil & gas, shipping, and precious metals, representing recent hot topic divergences in the phase of realization.
Position & Structure: Mainly in mid-low zones, represented by Nanjing Port, Mankalung, Maohua Industrial.

Profit Effect -
Distributed in sectors like AI power, optical fiber & communications, tungsten, Ascend, storage, representing trend-based major divergence and recovery after correction.
Position & Structure: Spread across different trend structures, represented by Zhangyuan Tungsten, Tongguang Cables.

Capital Flow Summary:
The divergence in geopolitics-related themes has receded, signaling capital realization. After liquidity release, some funds have flowed back into tech sectors for rotation and recovery, some into non-ferrous metals for recovery. Overall, capital preferences lean towards trending themes with price increase expectations. Whether this trend continues needs further observation.

3. Sector Analysis:
Sectors or concepts showing continued benign trend structures today include: Optical Fiber, Tungsten, Planting, AI Power, Transformers, Ascend, Oil.
These sectors or concepts represent recent profit effects and high recent capital involvement, suitable as short-term stock selection directions.

Geopolitical Sectors (Oil, Gas, Ports) -
In the first phase of trend cycle.
Led by China Merchants South Oil and COSCO Shipping Energy, with follow-up.

Path of geopolitical sector performance today:
During bidding, intercontinental oil & gas large orders continued with a single limit-up, Sinopec Oilfield Services and Shandong Molong also hit limit-up; sentiment stocks are fine. Key signals include the rebound of the sector’s limit-up stocks and the low open of Heshun Petroleum, with high capacity core stocks like COSCO Shipping Energy opening lower, and China Merchants South Oil’s large orders smashing at the last seconds, overall bidding strength below expectations, showing divergence signals.

Post-open, Heshun Petroleum plunges, as does COSCO Shipping, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), and COSCO Shipping Energy, despite doubts about the sector’s sustainability, the capacity stocks and sentiment stocks show extreme negative feedback.

During trading, despite declines and rebounds in China National Offshore Oil, COSCO Shipping, and others, the behavior is more quantitative fluctuation.

The sector from over 30 limit-up stocks to no effect, the tide recedes more sharply than expected. Respecting market facts, previously emphasized that sectors counter to the index during bull phases lack long-term sustainability; they are being phased out. Currently, the oil sector is in a liquidity realization and distribution phase, and even if there are pulses later, they should be viewed as rebounds.

Metals (Minor Metals, Rare Earths) -
In the first phase of trend cycle.
Led by Jiang Tung Equipment and Zhangyuan Tungsten, with follow-up.
Core trend: Zhangyuan Tungsten, Xianglu Tungsten, Xiamen Tungsten, China Tungsten High-tech, maintaining upward trend expectations, though Jiang Tung Equipment (suspected of riding the concept) has a lagging correction.

Performance path today:
During bidding, major low opens for core trend stocks like Zhangyuan Tungsten, Xianglu Tungsten, Huaxi Nonferrous, Xiamen Tungsten, with rapid recovery. Rare earths also follow: Baogang, China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth perform strongly. During the session, tungsten prices fluctuate sideways, rare earths spike then fall back.

Summary:
Yesterday’s review indicated that rare earths and nonferrous metals were on a rising price logic, but recent sharp declines due to market impact confirmed the overkill hypothesis. Today’s low open and rebound amplitude in tungsten are similar to previous optical fiber sector’s quantitative rebound, but the trend remains intact. With continued tungsten price increases, the upward trend is maintained; rare earths show significant negative feedback and structural break, entering deep consolidation, with potential for rebound after correction.

Artificial Intelligence (Computing Power, Chips) -
In the 13th phase of trend cycle.
Led by Haili Co., Chunzhong Technology, with follow-up.
Subsequent phases involve different stocks:
Phase 2: Haili Co., Dongxin Co.
Phase 3: Chunzhong Tech, Huasheng Tiancheng, Yingweike.
Phase 4: Huasheng Tiancheng.
Phase 5: Cambrian, Haiguang Info.
Phase 6: Huasheng Tiancheng.
Phase 7: No core leader, local rotation.
Phase 8: Industrial Fuxian, Shenghong Tech.
Phase 9: No core leader, various branches alternate.
Phase 10: Demingli, Shannong Chip, Jiangbolong, Zhongji Xuchuang, Shenghong Tech.
Phase 11: Blue Cursor, 360, Vision China.
Phase 12: Alternating trial-and-error.
Phase 13: Tongfu Microelectronics, Haiguang Info.
Phase 14: Longfibre Optic leads, Hengtong Optoelectronics, Hangdian Co.

Huawei Ascend core trend: Huasheng Tiancheng, Huafeng Tech, Taijia Co., Shenling Environment, Yi Hua Co., re-approaching the trend line, maintaining upward trend expectations.
Transformers core trend: Yigouer, Jinpian Tech, Wangbian Electric, Sifang Shares, Siyuan Electric, China Xidian, TBEA, maintaining upward trend expectations, medium-long term logic.
Gas turbines core trend: Liande Co., Wanze Co., Yingliu Co., Boyingte Welding, Weichai Power, Dongfang Electric, maintaining upward trend expectations, medium-long term.
Second-generation electronics core trend: Guoji Fucai, Honghe Tech, China Stone, currently in correction phase, uncertain short-term, medium-long term.
Q-Board core trend: Filihua, Ping An Electric, Zhongcai Tech, Dongcai Tech, in correction, uncertain short-term, medium-long term.
Copper foil core trend: Copper Crown, Longyang Electronics, Fude Tech, in post-rebound correction, uncertain short-term, medium-long term.
PCB drilling core trend: Dingtai High-tech, Zhongwu High-tech, Dazhu CNC, uncertain short-term, medium-long term.
PCB manufacturer core trend: Hudian Co., Shennan Circuit, Shenghong Tech, Shengyi Tech, in liquidity-driven correction, uncertain short-term, medium-long term.
Optical fiber core trend: Longfibre, Hengtong, Tongding, Hangdian, Zhongtian Tech, among recent best trend concepts, maintaining oscillating upward trend, anchored to trend line expectations.
OCS core trend: Tengjing Tech, Deke Li, Guangku Tech, in deep correction phase, uncertain short-term.
CPO/Optical Communication core trend: Huatiang Tech, Tanfeng Comm, Juguang Tech, Zhishang Tech, Jepu, Mingyang Circuit, some already broken, trend judged by individual stock structure.
Storage chips core trend: GigaDevice, Jiangbolong, Shannong Chip, Demingli, Baiwei Storage, in deep correction, uncertain short-term.
Domestic semiconductor front-end trend: Beifang Huachuang, Jiangfeng Electronics, Fuchuang Precision, Dinglong Co., ChipSource Micro, GreenDa, Jingce Electronics, etc., related to wafer manufacturing, uncertain short-term.
Domestic semiconductor back-end trend: Changchuan Tech, Changdian Tech, Tongfu Microelectronics, Jingzhida, Jinhai Tong, Xidian Micro, He Lin Weina, Polymer Materials, related to packaging/testing, uncertain short-term.

Today’s tech sector performance path:
During bidding, the trend-active Tongding Interconnection’s core button, while the large drop in Yunnan Energy Holdings exceeded expectations. The capital flow in computing power signals conflicting behaviors—uncertain whether driven by individual stock control or sector recovery expectations.

Post-open, Ascend concept stocks like Chuanrun Co. surged first; trend stocks like Huasheng Tiancheng, Tuowei Info, Yi Hua Co., Shenling Environment, Huafeng Tech collectively opened low and oscillated upward for recovery. Optical communication and optical core stocks followed: Hangdian, Hengtong, Zhongtian Tech strengthened; Tongding Interconnection was driven higher by anti-flip.
The strongest at open was AI Power segment (gas turbines, transformers): Sun Na Co., Jicheng Electronics, Sancai Tech, Senyuan Electric quickly surged, followed by others. Many stocks then broke and fell back, showing sector oscillation.

Today’s most dynamic sector was AI Power (gas turbines, transformers): driven by external news of the largest US power grid expansion, a short-term emotional reaction, with the key point that AI Power re-approached the trend line without breaking it, maintaining upward trend expectations.

Optical fiber & communications, as the strongest recent trend in computing power, tend to recover beyond expectations after dips, maintaining upward trend as long as no break occurs. Ascend concept, as recent domestic rebound in computing power, has uncertain sustainability, only trend-structure anchored.

In summary, today’s tech sector’s computing power-related sub-sectors experienced partial recovery without broad inflow, so future participation should focus on Ascend, AI Power, Optical Fiber & Communications, while other sectors require index stabilization and rebound for resonance.

4. Index and Market Outlook:

**As shown, today’s major index opened lower, then strengthened, and then oscillated, just around the key support at about 4080, with a significant volume decrease to 7 trillion yuan, indicating funds are in a lying-flat phase, a sign of exhaustion of the bear market, i.e., emotional lows. The index cannot yet be confirmed as a strong support signal; in some ways, today’s index and sentiment signals are mismatched. Therefore, a short-term rebound followed by a second dip is possible. Overall, the future index trend is expected to be in a range-bound oscillation, with the 60-day trend line as a strong support.

The current maximum liquidity zone is around 20 trillion yuan. If the index rebounds and then dips again or continues downward beyond expectations, reaching the liquidity limit zone, it will also be a sentiment low point and a rebound battle node. Future focus should be on the low probability of sustained strong rebounds, which are unlikely to resonate with aggressive sectors for a big trend, indicating a difficult phase of localized market conditions.

Pre-market thoughts for tomorrow:
Based on the above analysis of today’s sentiment lows, both the index and sentiment are expected to see short-term recovery tomorrow, providing a bottom-fishing entry point after the lows. From a trend and capital willingness perspective, sectors that lead the recovery and break above trend lines (AI Power, Ascend, Optical Fiber & Communications, Non-ferrous metals) may continue their advance. Subjectively, sectors with price increase logic like Non-ferrous and Optical Fiber are favored. Rotation considerations suggest that the oil sector may continue divergence; if it recovers, it should be viewed as a rebound, not a breakout. The chip and semiconductor sectors, which may have experienced recent large adjustments, could also see rotation and recovery. After sentiment lows, this is a testing point for capital direction, with increased probability of continuous rotation and rebound.

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