Analysis: Bitcoin's downward momentum slows, but it remains in a bear market structure

On March 3rd, recent Bitcoin downward momentum has weakened, but there are no signs of a structural reversal, and the overall trend remains within a bearish framework. Bitcoin did not accelerate its decline due to risk-averse sentiment-related negative news, indicating that downward pressure may be easing. Currently, the price has regained above the 20-day moving average (around $68,500), and the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, potentially setting the stage for a range expansion. The $62,500 level has been tested three times without breaking, and is considered a key support level. Meanwhile, RSI and stochastic indicators are showing bullish divergence, with momentum stabilizing. Analysts believe the market is experiencing a “tactical improvement,” but a trend reversal has not yet been confirmed. With volatility compressing, ETF capital inflows strengthening, and CEX discounts disappearing, these are not typical signs of a “new round of accelerated decline.” However, the overall asset allocation model still classifies Bitcoin as being in a bear market environment, and any long positions should be viewed as tactical. In the derivatives market, researchers note that previous deep negative funding rates led to crowded short positions in perpetual contracts, triggering a classic “short squeeze” that caused the price to rebound quickly from lows around $63,000, alleviating short-term selling pressure. However, analysts also emphasize that structural capital inflows remain lacking, macro catalysts are limited, and the downward trend since the all-time highs has not been broken. Overall, market sentiment has shifted from panic selling to relative restraint, and the short-term may enter a consolidation phase, but the medium-term trend remains to be confirmed.