Insider Betting on the Eve of War: How Six Accounts Made 1.2 Million in 71 Minutes

Before the flames of war ignite and the smoke rises, a bet on life and death has quietly been settled.

On February 28, news of a large-scale U.S. military strike against Iran shocked the world. However, 71 minutes before the explosion, a Polymarket account named “Magamyman” bet approximately $87,000 that “the U.S. will attack Iran today,” at a time when the market’s implied probability was only 17%. After the airstrike was confirmed, this account made over $500,000 in profit overnight.

This is not an isolated case. Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps tracked six mysterious accounts that concentrated their trades before the military action, collectively earning about $1.2 million. Precise to an astonishing degree of timing, with highly consistent trading patterns, these activities have put the U.S. prediction platform Polymarket under suspicion of insider trading.

1. The “Perfect Time Difference” of 71 Minutes

● Bubblemaps’ flow of funds chart reveals a fascinating trading map: all six accounts were registered in February, most completed their first deposits within 24 hours before the attack, and aside from this bet, their account histories show no other transactions.

● One account bought over 560,000 “Yes” shares at about 10.8 cents each, ultimately earning nearly $560,000; another bought nearly 150,000 shares at 20 cents each, also recording six-figure gains. Bubblemaps CEO Nicholas Weiman told Bloomberg that these accounts’ funding sources are highly similar, with clear linkages between their wallets.

● Even more eye-catching is the account named “Magamyman.” Democratic Congressman Mike Levin posted on social platform X that this account’s first transaction occurred 71 minutes before the related news was publicly disclosed.

● “In cases involving war or conflict, relevant information may circulate within small circles before being made public,” Weiman analyzed. “Polymarket typically only requires a cryptocurrency account to trade, offering high anonymity, which could encourage insiders with privileged information to act early.”

2. “Profiting from War and Death”

● As details of the trades emerged, outrage in U.S. political circles quickly intensified. Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy angrily tweeted: “This behavior is actually legal—absolutely absurd. Trump’s associates are profiting from war and death. I will propose legislation to ban such trades entirely.”

● Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego was even more blunt: “This is blatant insider trading and must be deemed illegal. These scoundrels are exploiting our fallen soldiers for profit. It’s disgusting and morally reprehensible.” It’s reported that three military personnel have died and five were seriously injured since the strike began.

● Congressman Levin, when exposing this, highlighted a detail: Donald Trump’s current advisor on Polymarket, whose company invested tens of millions of dollars in the platform last year. He called for explanations and for increased transparency and regulation.

● Facing fierce criticism, a White House spokesperson defended, “The only special interest guiding Trump administration decisions is the greatest interest of the American people.”

3. Regulatory Red Line: CFTC’s Warning and Kalshi’s “Forced Liquidation”

As this incident unfolded, U.S. regulators are intensifying their scrutiny of insider trading in prediction markets.

● Just three days before the airstrike—February 25—the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a targeted warning, explicitly stating it would crack down on insider trading in prediction markets. The notice cited two enforcement cases on Kalshi: a political candidate betting on their own election contract was fined $2,246 and banned for five years; a visual effects editor for MrBeast’s show used non-public information about the outcome to trade, fined over $20,000 and banned for two years.

● The CFTC emphasized that exchanges have an independent responsibility to maintain audit trails, monitor markets, and enforce rules against misconduct. U.S. Southern District Federal Prosecutor Jay Clayton bluntly stated, “Because it’s a prediction market doesn’t mean you’re immune from fraud charges.”

● Kalshi, regulated by the CFTC, faces compliance scrutiny over this incident. Its contract on “Will Khamenei step down?” after Iran’s Supreme Leader was killed in the airstrike sparked controversy. Former SEC chief Amanda Fischer criticized: “This is essentially providing a covert assassination prediction market.”

● In response to widespread criticism, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour announced refunds of all fees generated from users participating in the controversial markets. Positions established before Khamenei’s death will be forcibly settled at the last trading price. However, this “forced liquidation” did not quell the controversy; many users complained on social media about being “played” by the platform.

4. Not the First Time: Shadows from Maduro to Axiom

In fact, allegations of insider trading on Polymarket are not new.

● In January, just hours before Trump’s government announced a raid on Venezuela and arrested President Maduro, a newly created mysterious account bet on Maduro’s ouster, earning over 1,200% return in less than a day, turning about $32,000 into over $400,000.

● A week before the Iran airstrike was exposed, blockchain investigator ZachXBT released a report accusing Axiom, a crypto trading platform, of using non-public information for trading. Before the report was public, a contract on Polymarket was created betting “which company will be named,” with 12 wallets heavily betting on Axiom before the results were announced—collecting over $1 million in profits.

● Lookonchain’s analysis shows the biggest winner was an account named “predictorxyz,” which accumulated 477,415 contracts at an average price of $0.14, ultimately earning $411,000. ZachXBT himself admitted that he contacted Axiom for comments and conducted multiple interviews before the report, acknowledging that information leaks “may be unavoidable.”

5. Anonymity and Regulatory Dilemmas

Polymarket’s operational model presents unique regulatory challenges.

● The platform is blockchain-based, allowing users to trade with just a crypto wallet, without identity verification. This high level of anonymity makes it extremely difficult to trace insider traders. Weiman told Bloomberg, “Polymarket usually only needs one crypto account to trade, providing high anonymity, which could encourage insiders to act early.”

● Notably, Polymarket’s main trading infrastructure is located outside the U.S., and it does not accept U.S. residents as clients, thus not directly regulated by the CFTC. Last month, two Israelis—a reservist and a civilian—were indicted for allegedly using classified military information to bet on Polymarket.

● Meanwhile, Polymarket faces a wave of global regulatory crackdowns. Countries including the Netherlands, Hungary, Belgium, France, Italy, Romania, Poland, Singapore, and Portugal have banned or restricted the platform, considering its event contracts as unlicensed online gambling rather than financial transactions.

6. The New Legislative Battle

The insider trading suspicion on the eve of the airstrike is pushing the U.S. Congress toward action.

● Representative Ritchie Torres has proposed the “2026 Public Integrity Act for Financial Prediction Markets,” which would prohibit elected officials, political appointees, and federal employees from trading contracts tied to government policies or political outcomes when they possess non-public information. Senator Murphy has said he will introduce legislation to ban such trades entirely.

● From traditional finance to crypto, from stock insider trading to war prediction bets, the regulatory red line is extending into this emerging “casino.” CFTC’s warnings, Kalshi’s “forced liquidation,” and congressional legislative efforts all send the same message: no matter how the trading shell changes, market integrity must be upheld.

● As for those six mysterious accounts that entered precisely 71 minutes before the attack, and the “Magamyman” winner, their true identities may remain forever unknown. But their transaction records have become the most naked footnotes of this era: in the face of war and death, some see not tragedy but opportunity.