First Capital Futures: US-Iran conflict continues, oil prices continue to surge

Iran establishes a provisional leadership committee to take control, with nationwide martial law. Iran’s strike operations enter their 13th round, focusing on key Israeli facilities and U.S. military bases in the Persian Gulf. U.S. and Israeli airstrikes continue to expand, targeting not only military installations but also government, media, and civilian infrastructure; Trump states that military actions could last 4–5 weeks, with possible deployment of ground troops. Iran currently refuses to negotiate, and the U.S. and Israel also refuse to cease fire, so the war is unlikely to end in the short term. On March 2 late at night, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard officially announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, vowing to target all ships attempting passage. The strait normally sees an average of 138 ships daily, but now only a few are daring to pass, with a reduction of over 70%, and many ships are stranded outside the strait. This affects 20–30% of global oil shipping and 25% of offshore oil trade; Qatar’s 99% LNG export channels are essentially cut off; daily impact on oil transportation is 18–21 million barrels. Additionally, war risk premiums have surged from 0.25% to 15%, VLCC single-trip insurance premiums have risen from $250,000 to $3.75 million, far exceeding freight costs. In the short term, oil prices remain bullish, and it is recommended to hold long positions; those not yet in the market should wait and see. (Chuangchuang Futures)