Say goodbye to blind spending! MiniMax's first financial report "stuns" Wall Street: achieving 131% high growth with low R&D costs, profitability exceeding expectations

MiniMax’s first financial report after listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange delivered a performance far exceeding expectations, with explosive growth in API demand and efficient R&D investments being the biggest highlights.

On March 2nd, JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs both released research reports analyzing China AI large model company MiniMax’s Q4 and full-year 2025 financials. JPMorgan Chase stated:

We did not see any particularly unfavorable data.

Strong revenue growth, API business as the main engine

MiniMax achieved $26 million in net revenue in Q4 2025, a 131% year-over-year increase. This figure not only surpassed JPMorgan’s forecast of $19 million (up 32%) but also exceeded Bloomberg’s consensus estimate of $18 million (up 43%).

Goldman Sachs pointed out that this strong growth was mainly driven by the dual efforts of AI-native products and the API platform. Revenue from AI-native products reached $15 million, up 82% year-over-year, mainly thanks to the release of Hailuo 2.3/Speech 2.6 in October and upgrades to Hailuo AI internal features.

More notably, the explosive growth of the API platform business stood out. In Q4, revenue from the open platform and other enterprise services reached $11 million, up 278% year-over-year, accelerating further from the 160% growth in the previous three quarters. Goldman Sachs believes this was mainly driven by the launch of models M2, M2.1, and M2-her during the quarter.

Moving away from a “burning money” model, R&D efficiency far exceeded expectations

In the AI large model field, high R&D costs have always been a heavy burden for companies. However, MiniMax has demonstrated remarkable R&D efficiency.

The financial report shows that MiniMax’s R&D expenses in Q4 were $72 million, far below JPMorgan’s expected $107 million. Goldman Sachs pointed out that this kept the company’s full-year R&D expenses for 2025 at $253 million, fully demonstrating high R&D efficiency.

This high cost-effectiveness directly contributed to improved profitability. In Q4, MiniMax’s gross margin reached 29.7%, up 6.4 percentage points from 23.3% in the first three quarters of 2025. JPMorgan Chase believes this may be due to scale expansion and product structure optimization.

Meanwhile, the company’s losses also improved significantly. In Q4, adjusted net loss was $68 million, much better than JPMorgan’s forecast of a $122 million loss and also better than Goldman Sachs’s expected $130 million loss.

Demand to continue exploding in 2026, broad prospects for commercialization

The most exciting part of the financial report for the market was MiniMax’s disclosed strong demand data from early 2026.

According to the company, in February 2026, the average daily token consumption of the M2 series text models increased more than sixfold compared to December 2025, while token consumption generated by encoding schemes increased over tenfold.

JPMorgan Chase believes that such vigorous API demand momentum provides high visibility for revenue doubling in 2026. The bank forecasts that MiniMax’s revenue in 2026 will grow by 159% year-over-year.

Goldman Sachs also emphasized MiniMax’s competitiveness in the global market. Data shows that over the past month, MiniMax’s M2.5 model ranked first on the OpenRouter platform. Goldman Sachs estimates that based on the average token usage over the past four weeks, MiniMax’s annual recurring revenue (ARR) from APIs on OpenRouter will reach approximately $40 million.

Institution Ratings: JPMorgan Chase raises target to HKD 1,000, Goldman Sachs maintains neutral

Based on strong performance and broad commercialization prospects, JPMorgan Chase rates MiniMax as “Overweight” with a target price of HKD 1,000 by December 2026.

JPMorgan Chase believes that MiniMax possesses rare strengths in AI foundational models, including technological capability, multimodal commercialization potential, and global expansion ability. Its full-spectrum models facilitate dual commercialization for B2B and B2C, reducing reliance on a single monetization path.

Goldman Sachs maintains a “Neutral” rating with a 12-month target price of HKD 1,018. Goldman Sachs considers MiniMax one of the best-positioned Chinese AI model companies, capable of capturing the huge global total addressable market (TAM) growth potential in text/code, multimodal, and agent/collaborative work (digital labor) fields. This is attributed to its comprehensive multimodal products, strong commercialization ability, cost advantages per token, and high organizational efficiency.

Goldman Sachs also highlighted future concerns, including revenue prospects in 2026, the latest model roadmap (such as potential M3 release), pricing strategies (considering increased inference costs and recent peer price hikes), competitive landscape, and investments in To-C partner applications (Talkie/Xingye).

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