The escalation of the Iran conflict is reshaping the global macro landscape. The risk of closing the Strait of Hormuz is pushing up oil prices, and markets fear that US CPI could surge to around 5%, directly reversing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Capital Economics warns that government bonds no longer provide reliable safe-haven functions, while the US dollar, backed by energy net exports and interest rate differentials, is expected to become the ultimate winner. The US dollar index rose to 98.5, hitting a five-week high.

Cryptocurrency markets experienced intense volatility over the weekend, with Bitcoin rebounding V-shaped from $63,000 to $68,200, with billions of dollars in liquidations across the network. This movement reflects deep market divergence: during the initial panic, Bitcoin fell along with risk assets, proving that the "digital gold" narrative has not yet been established; but the quick rebound also shows some funds recognize its "censorship resistance" value. Ethereum and altcoins generally declined more than Bitcoin, indicating that on-chain capital is consolidating. Notably, last week, US spot Bitcoin ETF saw over $1 billion in net inflows for three consecutive days, suggesting long-term capital is buying the dip.

Arthur Hayes offers a contrarian view, believing that if the US engages in the Iran conflict long-term, it will force the Federal Reserve to shift back toward monetary easing—history shows that after the Gulf War and 9/11, the Fed chose to cut rates. He suggests that the optimal buying opportunity is after the Fed actually cuts rates or expands its balance sheet. The crypto fear index has fallen to a historic extreme low of 10, indicating market sentiment has entered a state of extreme panic. Historical experience shows that extreme panic often occurs at cycle bottoms, but this does not mean an immediate rebound.

There are three possible scenarios for the future: if the conflict shortens, Bitcoin will revert to rate expectations as the main driver; if the conflict prolongs and the Fed cuts rates, a rally could begin; if inflation spirals out of control forcing the Fed to hike rates, Bitcoin will face dual pressures. The US CPI data on March 11 will be the first major test for the market. During periods of geopolitical turmoil, maintaining flexible positions and asset liquidity is the best strategy to cope with uncertainty.