What impact does the Iran-U.S. conflict have on the crypto world? Will BTC's monthly chart five consecutive down days break below 60,000? What opportunities are there for mainstream coins next???

The flames of war in Iran have reached the heart of the crypto industry, Dubai, UAE. The world-famous Burj Al Arab hotel in Dubai was hit by Iranian missile attacks. This city, one of the wealthiest in the Middle East and globally, has been drawn into this geopolitical conflict due to its strategic location.
In recent years, Dubai has become a symbol of embracing new money, attracting top-tier Web3 industry chains, exchanges, project teams, and practitioners, all viewing Dubai as the Web3 industry capital. This is because it offers comprehensive regulation and compliant policies. But all of this can appear extremely fragile in the face of national warfare and conflict. If a ceasefire cannot be reached in the Iran situation in the short term, it could deal a huge blow to several of the UAE’s major economic pillars, and the crypto industry is one of them.
Let’s analyze the logic behind how this war impacts the market.
Earlier this year, Venezuela experienced a similar situation: geopolitical risks spiked, US stocks fell first, and capital’s initial reaction was to withdraw from risk assets, including BTC—selling first, then regrouping cash. The result was a sharp drop at market open. But after the sell-off, on-chain transfer volume surged because BTC’s cross-border transferability is too convenient, and its safe-haven properties began to show. The market then gradually recovered and entered a period of oscillation.
The recent Iran attack resembles this rhythm. Short-term sentiment takes priority, and US stocks tend to bottom out on Monday’s open. Many rush to buy the dip, often panic-selling at the first sign of fear. Waiting for the market to form a bottoming structure is much safer than guessing the bottom.
Currently, BTC is on a five-month consecutive downtrend on the monthly chart. Such a large decline is unusual; theoretically, with BTC’s current liquidity and market consensus, such five-month consecutive monthly declines are impossible.
Of course, in the short term, BTC is still likely to rebound technically. For detailed analysis, see this article: Technical Analysis of BTC’s Future Trends.
Since 2018, BTC has only experienced up to three consecutive monthly down days, so the current situation invalidates the narrative that BTC will crash to zero from quantum computer attacks or other extreme fears. Slightly more optimistic views see this as normal bear market behavior. But from another perspective, as the most liquidity-sensitive indicator in the financial markets, does a five-month consecutive monthly decline hint at an impending financial crisis?
Most major financial institutions on Wall Street are now worried that AI development could trigger a future financial crisis. Many wonder: AI clearly boosts productivity, so why would it cause a financial crisis? But increased productivity doesn’t mean everyone gets richer.
AI can indeed dramatically improve efficiency, but the key question is—who gets the profits? If AI mainly replaces white-collar jobs, company profits rise, and shareholders make more money, but middle-class incomes decline significantly, consumer spending will gradually weaken.
Economic activity depends on money flow. Companies’ profits need to be redistributed to ordinary people through wages, so they can spend, prompting companies to produce more. This is a positive cycle. But if profits become increasingly concentrated at the capital level, and capital prefers to invest, hoard, and make money work for itself rather than spend, demand will weaken.
If AI makes production capacity grow stronger but purchasing power becomes more concentrated, a situation may arise: goods are plentiful, but fewer people buy. Companies can’t sell enough, start shrinking, layoffs increase, and a negative cycle forms.
Currently, US stocks are already high, compounded by last year’s inverted yield curve on short- and long-term US Treasury rates, and recent surges in precious metals like gold and silver. When these two indicators appear simultaneously, a major crash almost always follows, like the 2008 financial crisis. So, stay prepared; this year, mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC could present a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
What opportunities are there for mainstream coins now???
The strongest mainstream coin in the market right now is SOL.
In the short term, buying around $80 on a pullback is a good idea. From a risk-reward perspective, SOL’s subsequent rebound potential is greater than BTC and ETH, with a mid-term target of $95–$100.
Another potential bullish coin is DOT.
On March 14th, it will have a halving event, and this round of the DOT bull market has not shown outstanding performance. Looking at ICP’s previous trend, there’s a possibility of a “fake revival” during the bear market.
That’s the short-term market analysis. The market’s movement is a continuous cycle.
Set your alarm clock, dollar-cost average into Bitcoin during the bear market, hold for three years, and then just wait to cash out.
Making money is that simple—most people just don’t want to believe it.
The crypto bear market is here, and there are 222 days left until the end of this cycle’s bear phase.
Hope you’ll join me in getting through this tough bear market. When the next bull run arrives, I hope we’re both ready. #深度创作营