Last night's US-Iran situation review: Iranian high-ranking officials were attacked and killed, over 200 ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz

On March 2nd, the situation in the Middle East rapidly worsened as the US and Israel launched a large-scale airstrike against Iran. Iran confirmed that multiple high-ranking officials, including the Supreme Leader, were killed in the attack. The spillover effects of the conflict quickly impacted global energy and financial markets. Trump stated that military operations against Iran could last about four weeks. The US military has targeted hundreds of sites, including the headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, air defense systems, and naval facilities, and confirmed that nuclear facilities were not involved. The US disclosed the use of B-2 stealth bombers and other equipment. Iran announced the formation of a temporary leadership committee. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed to have launched the ninth round of “True Commitment 4” operations and shot down multiple US and Israeli drones. Iran warned that if energy facilities are attacked, it will strike regional oil and gas infrastructure. Shipping data shows over 200 vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waters, including oil and liquefied gas carriers. Some oil tankers were attacked and damaged along the Persian Gulf coast. Insurance brokers estimate that war risk premiums could increase by 25%–50%. Goldman Sachs estimates that if the Strait of Hormuz supply is fully disrupted for six weeks, oil prices could risk a $18 per barrel premium; if only 50% of supply is disrupted for one month, the premium could be about $4. International oil prices surged, with Brent Crude and WTI Crude Oil initially rising significantly. Many institutions believe that if oil prices approach $90 per barrel, global inflation and monetary policy paths will need to be reassessed. Safe-haven sentiment increased, gold strengthened, the US dollar remained stable against the Japanese yen, and the US dollar fell against the Swiss franc. The euro fell below 1.18 against the US dollar. Major Middle Eastern stock indices declined 4%–5% during trading, Iran’s stock market suspended trading, and several UAE exchanges announced temporary closures. According to CME “Fed Watch,” the probability of the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady in March is 93.6%, with markets still betting on no policy changes in the near term. The US Capitol will implement enhanced security measures. The UK reported an explosion at a British military base in Cyprus. Curfews were imposed in parts of northern Pakistan. The EU announced plans to deploy additional ships to strengthen security in the Red Sea and Gulf regions. Analysts believe the key variables now are: 1) whether the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked; 2) whether the conflict expands to a broader region; 3) whether rising energy prices reignite global inflation expectations. If energy transportation remains smooth, markets may recover temporarily; if oil and gas supplies are substantially impacted, global asset prices could experience further volatility.