20260301 Attention: Xiamen Tungsten, Huasheng Tiancheng, Yunnan Geology, Baichuan Shares, Yuntianhua

Tomorrow’s Focus (Short-term) [Taogu Ba]
Sentiment Anchors: Yunnan Energy Investment, Taijia Shares, Hang Electric Shares
Core Expectations: Yunnan Energy to reach the maximum limit, Yunnan Energy Shares +5 to accelerate the limit? Taijia to see +6/one-word, Hang Electric to open -3-4.

Risk Tips:

1. Yunnan Energy Shares are temporarily halted from rising (moderate break).
2. Jiang tungsten equipment shows over 3% abnormal movement

Tomorrow’s Key Focus: Top five below
Xiamen Tungsten (002478 / 600549) Core: Niobium Oxide, short-term target 100.
Hua Sheng Tian Cheng Core: Large models + electricity, buy on dips of -4~-5, 27.30 is support level, long-term optimistic;
Baichuan Shares Core target: 30 yuan??? TMB price hike → if the 13.60 bottom line breaks, must exit.
Yunnan Germanium Industry Core: Aerospace germanium + minor metals. Leading germanium industry chain company, key supplier of space photovoltaic germanium substrate materials.
Yuntianhua Core: Phosphorus chemical sector, sulfur, 5/10-day moving average. (Iran is the global sulfur (key raw material for phosphate fertilizers, about 30% of global trade), urea major exporter, blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will reduce raw material supply, increase shipping costs and war risk premiums, directly raising costs and prices of phosphates and fertilizers.)

Consecutive Limit: Fenghuo Communication (603017) Commercial aerospace + optical fiber + computing power + military communication (Fenghuo Communication: a core supplier of China StarNet, exclusively supporting Blue Arrow Aerospace’s low-orbit constellation, high laser inter-satellite communication barrier (self-developed 100Gbps terminals with over 90% localization), accelerated low-orbit satellite constellation construction driven by Middle East conflicts)

Core Stocks by Sector
Strontium Mineral: Jinrui Mining, Hongxing Development
Oil: Heshun Oil, Intercontinental Oil & Gas, expected to open one-word
Core Logic: Futures manipulation downward, watch if stock prices follow.
Methanol: Jinniu Chemical 220,000 tons, Shaanxi Black Cat 300,000 tons, Chitianhua 300,000 tons. (14:37 [Industry insider: Middle East tensions may drive methanol prices up] Conflict in the Middle East could impact methanol imports. Caixin reporter learned that on February 28, methanol prices slightly rebounded with little fluctuation, “if imports decrease later, methanol prices may rise rapidly.” A methanol industry insider from Shandong told Caixin.)

Long-term trend: The 10-day moving average is the life line; it must not be broken, or exit is necessary!!!
MLCC Resistors: Fenghua High Tech Core expectation: 104+ institutional research, long-term 10-day line as bottom line
Aerospace export: SpaceX application for IPO report in March → focus on Western Materials (long-term).
Electronic Fabric: Honghe Technology (still bullish long-term, based on previous logic)
Semiconductor Target Materials: Youyan New Materials, optimistic trend long-term, (Youyan New Materials (600206), core position: domestic leader in ultra-high purity yttrium oxide, a national team for rare earth new materials, part of Youyan Group. Key advantage: first in China to achieve 6N (99.9999%) ultra-high purity yttrium oxide mass production, top industry technical barrier, products mainly used in semiconductor etching targets, military laser crystals, high-end optics, etc., key domestic supplier for high-purity oxide in the semiconductor industry chain, with integrated downstream target material production capability.)
Sifang Co.: High growth in ADC + high CAGR in US AI power capacity, future demand exceeds 150GW, core beneficiary stock.
Changbao Co.: Semiconductor + machine tool linkage, core benefits on equipment side, short-term elastic stock.

Price Increase Chain: Price hikes driven by conflicts:
Oil, shipping, gold, energy, etc…

War Metals:
Tungsten: Armor-piercing shells + engine blades
Antimony: Infrared guidance + night vision + ammunition
Cobalt: Aircraft engines + armor
Gallium: Military radar + satellite communication chips
Germanium: Infrared thermal imaging + fiber optic communication

March Events:

1. US and Israel attack Iran 2. Two Sessions 3. February CPI, PPI 4. Robotics Industry Conference 5. Nvidia GTC Conference 6. Huawei Partner Meeting 7. Boao Forum 8. Semiconductor Exhibition 9. Perovskite Battery Industry Conference 10. Commercial Aerospace Conference

Yttrium Oxide (Y2O3): a core rare earth product, key strategic material for export controls in China, mainly used in AI computing power, semiconductor targets, high-end permanent magnets, laser crystals, high-temperature superconductors, military optics, new energy, etc. Over 90% of global capacity and output are concentrated in China. Based on production scale, industry chain position, and technological barriers, divided into three tiers, all core stocks meet national rare earth smelting and separation compliance standards, industry leaders.