Post-New Year Reflection: Recognize the Structural Market Trend and Go with the Flow

Long time no see. This year has almost come to an end. As for the market, after experiencing a period of emotional sell-off before the New Year, it has basically entered the usual structural pattern of the large A-shares market.

What is a structural pattern? Simply put, some high-priced stocks will enter a long-term stagnation, while some relatively low-priced sectors will see some group buying trends when their opportunities arise. For example, the current trend of group buying is a product of the structure.

A full bull market is basically unlikely. The nature of a bull market is short-lived; most of the market time is characterized by structural trends, maintaining stable fluctuations within a range year-round. Opportunities are like small stones thrown into a lake, occasionally causing emotional waves.
So, in the new year, the main theme will be a relay of logical groupings. This relay can be divided into two types, which I have mentioned in some systems before and can still be applied. Although the market changes, the changes will only be minor; major changes are unlikely. Just like thousands of years of history, or the vegetables you eat every day—no matter how many varieties there are, they are always the same old ones. This is not something humans can manipulate or distort; it is an inevitable natural law. Human wisdom is insignificant in the face of nature. In another ten thousand years, it will still be the same; nothing will change.

Why do some friends find market trading difficult? Because they are too persistent and overly believe in human thinking ability. For example, when you learn a set of signals to identify the main trend, you try to incorporate this knowledge into every market fluctuation. But over time, with more experience, you realize that not every market movement is driven by the main trend. Sometimes, only certain parts within the same industry are rising.

Another example is some friends who like to calculate cycles, trying to estimate the time from one emotional sell-off to the next emotional recovery, discovering some patterns after two or three cycles. But these patterns may change in the next cycle; what was expected to recover might turn into a false breakout after a trap. These are normal market phenomena.
Therefore, there is no fixed, quantifiable holy grail in the market. If you are obsessed with it, you will endlessly study incomplete knowledge. When we think about the market, what we are really doing is identifying the market’s state.

For example, in the current structural market, if you insist on treating it as a big bull market, the results will likely be unfavorable. So, the market’s state is very important. The environment we often talk about is actually the market’s condition. When it rains, take an umbrella; when it’s hot, wear fewer clothes. Knowing hot from cold keeps you healthy.
Tomorrow marks the first trading day of March, and it is also the time when 2026 truly transitions into a normalized cycle.

Spring returns with snow and wind, flying snow welcomes spring.
Already on the cliff’s edge with ice a hundred zhang thick, yet the flowers still bloom beautifully.
In the new year, I wish everyone success in learning, happiness, and good health. Happy New Year.