Stablecoin market capitalization growth stalls, with cross-border applications and RWA tokenization emerging as new drivers

By the end of 2025, the crypto market presents an interesting picture of divergence: on one side, stablecoin market cap approaches $300 billion but has nearly stagnated, with holder growth and on-chain activity severely diverging; on the other side, the RWA (Real-World Asset) sector surpasses $19 billion in market cap and continues to rise, with institutions like Ctrip, ICBC, and BC Card competing in cross-border payment scenarios. This reflects a profound shift of stablecoins from “investment assets” to “payment and settlement infrastructure,” and the ceiling on stablecoin market cap growth may be broken through accelerated real-world application deployment.

Stablecoin Market Cap Growth Hits Bottleneck, but Holder Base Continues to Expand

As of December 2025, the total stablecoin market cap reaches $298.56 billion, a slight increase of only 0.36% month-over-month, with growth essentially flat. More notably, this market cap has grown by only about $100 billion over nearly a year, far below earlier optimistic expectations of $2-4 trillion.

Interestingly, the total number of stablecoin holders has increased against the trend, reaching approximately 213 million, up 4.33% MoM. What does this imply? JPMorgan’s analysis provides an answer: Most new holders are long-term allocators or low-activity accounts, not active traders. Meanwhile, monthly transfer volume has decreased to $6.08 trillion, and active addresses have slightly declined to 44.43 million—classic signs of passive holder base expansion amid a broad contraction in on-chain economic activity.

The primary drivers of stablecoin market cap growth remain internal crypto derivatives trading and DeFi collateral demand, rather than real cross-border payments or daily consumption scenarios. Payment-related activity currently has a relatively weak impact, but this situation is changing.

RWA Market Cap Surpasses $19 Billion, Global Regulatory Framework Accelerates

In stark contrast to the sluggish stablecoin growth, the RWA (Real-World Asset Tokenization) sector is accelerating, with a market cap of $19.04 billion, up 4.09% MoM. The number of holders exceeds 593,900, up 7.72%. This indicates a transition from mere asset holding to value creation.

On the regulatory front worldwide, progress is rapid:

In the U.S., bipartisan lawmakers in the House have drafted a crypto tax framework, planning to provide a tax safe harbor for regulated stablecoin transactions—meaning stablecoin trading could enjoy similar tax treatment as traditional securities, significantly reducing costs.

In Japan, the government plans to submit legislation in 2026 to promote the digital securitization of local bonds via blockchain, with plans to use local bank stablecoins for interest payments—opening a new low-cost local financing pathway.

Ghana has officially legalized crypto trading, with the central bank announcing plans in 2026 to explore asset-backed digital settlement tools, including gold-backed stablecoins.

South Korea’s central bank has launched a second round of CBDC testing, planning to distribute some government subsidies via digital currency—an important signal of CBDC moving from pilot to real-world application.

Regulatory frameworks in China, Europe, and other regions are also advancing in parallel, creating a global race: countries are exploring CBDCs and simultaneously creating conditions for regulated private stablecoins.

Cross-Border Payments Breakthroughs: Ctrip, ICBC, BC Card’s Trio

The growth bottleneck of stablecoin market cap is being broken through real-world application deployment.

Ctrip’s international platform Trip.com recently launched stablecoin payment support, accepting USDT and USDC, allowing users to pay via Ethereum, Tron, Polygon, Solana, and other blockchains. Vietnamese users paying for flights and hotels with USDT save approximately 18% and 2.35%, respectively. This is not a small test but a formal embrace of stablecoin payments by a global OTA platform.

ICBC Singapore successfully piloted cross-border recharge of digital RMB wallets, allowing Singaporean users to top up digital RMB wallets via local accounts for use within China. This follows previous pilot projects on import-export settlement and marks another innovation in cross-border digital currency applications by ICBC.

South Korea’s payment giant BC Card completed a stablecoin payment pilot, enabling foreign users to pay local merchants with stablecoins—preparing for future stablecoin settlement systems. BC Card handles over 20% of domestic card transactions in Korea, serving 3.4 million local merchants—its entry signals significant industry implications.

Meanwhile, NYSE-listed Shift4 has launched a stablecoin settlement platform, allowing merchants to settle in USDC, USDT, EURC, and other major stablecoins without bank transfers. Finance is becoming as “invisible” as water and electricity—serving as a foundational layer directly callable by software and AI—and stablecoins are key infrastructure in this transformation.

ETHZilla Shifts Focus to RWA, New Direction for Market Value Creation

Ethereum treasury management firm ETHZilla’s strategic adjustment illustrates this trend. It sold 24,291 ETH (about $74.5 million) to redeem bonds and explicitly announced a shift toward RWA tokenization, believing future value will mainly come from revenue and cash flow growth in RWA businesses.

This decision is based on the logic that pure asset holdings have reached a ceiling, while tokenizing real assets to create liquidity and improve capital efficiency is the next growth engine.

Correspondingly, asset management firm Amplify launched two new ETFs—STBQ (Stablecoin Technology) and TKNQ (Asset Tokenization Technology)—tracking related indices, providing structured investment tools. This move by traditional financial institutions signals that asset tokenization is moving from fringe to mainstream.

The Deep Logic Behind the Stablecoin Market Cap Ceiling

JPMorgan projects stablecoin supply could reach $500-600 billion by 2028, well below the most optimistic forecasts. This projection is based on the assumption that stablecoin demand remains primarily a crypto market issue, not a payment issue.

However, reality may be more complex. Growth in stablecoin market cap might no longer depend solely on increasing supply but on faster circulation velocity. Visa allowing banks to settle in USDC 24/7, Ctrip integrating stablecoins into international travel spending, financial institutions launching tokenized deposit products—all these imply that the same stablecoin market cap can support larger transaction volumes.

In other words, stagnation in stablecoin market cap may actually be a healthy market signal: declining speculative demand and rising payment utility. The decline of pure speculation and the rise of real-world applications suggest a shift from quantity to quality.

Global initiatives like China’s “Western Land-Sea New Corridor,” Japan’s on-chain local bonds, Ghana’s gold-backed stablecoins, and Korea’s digital subsidy disbursements show that stablecoins are evolving from exchange trading pairs to foundational infrastructure for cross-border settlement, asset tokenization, and digital payments.

This is the real story behind stablecoins surpassing $300 billion: not slowing growth, but reaching a critical point of qualitative change.