Kalshi CEO: Death cannot be used as a settlement condition; prediction markets related to Hamaney will be settled based on his trading price before his death

On March 1st, Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour posted on X stating, “Regarding Khamenei: We will not launch markets directly linked to ‘death.’ When potential outcomes of certain markets involve death, we design rules to prevent people from profiting from death events. That is exactly our approach in this case. I know some of you disagree, believing these markets should be launched without a ‘death exclusion clause’ because the rules would be simpler, and many traditional markets (such as oil futures) can be seen as indirect markets related to war and death. But we believe this is different from markets that directly settle based on someone’s death—the latter are not permitted for regulated entities in the U.S. However, today’s events have also made us realize that there is room for improvement in optimizing user experience and making rules more prominent and visible. Meanwhile, we will take the following measures: refund all fees generated from the ‘Will Khamenei step down as Supreme Leader’ market; if you held positions before Khamenei’s death, settlement will be based on his last trading price before death; if positions are opened after his death, the full cost of the position will be refunded. No user will lose a single dollar in this market. We will settle at the last trading price before the time of death—specifically, at 1:14 AM Eastern Time (the time of the first strike). If you bought positions at a higher price today, we will refund the difference to ensure your funds are not at risk. Additionally, we will refund all fees paid by users in this market.”