Iran claims it will use cutting-edge mysterious weapons! Black Swan attack — how much will it impact the global markets?

Black Swan Attack

On February 28th, local time, the US and Israel launched a joint military operation against Iran. Subsequently, Iran launched missile retaliations. Latest reports indicate that senior commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Jabarri, issued a stern warning to U.S. President Trump. He publicly stated that the missiles used in today’s retaliatory actions were merely “outdated stockpiles in warehouses,” and revealed that Iran is about to showcase and deploy a series of “mysterious weapons never before seen on the battlefield.”

As a result, the cryptocurrency market plummeted across the board, with over 150,000 traders liquidated at one point, and the total market value of cryptocurrencies evaporated by approximately $70 billion (nearly 480 billion RMB). Additionally, trading on the Tehran Stock Exchange was halted on the same day.

Furthermore, according to CCTV News, ships in the waters surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have generally reduced their speed to zero, indicating that shipping in the area has come to a standstill. Several major global oil companies and trading giants have officially announced the suspension of their oil and fuel ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Since the incident occurred on Saturday, stock markets and commodity trading markets worldwide are closed, raising concerns about the potential impact of this “Black Swan” event on global markets.

US and Israel Launch Joint Military Action Against Iran; Iran Launches Missile Retaliation

On February 28th, local time, the US and Israel launched a joint military operation against Iran. Iran responded with retaliatory actions, with senior officials stating that Iran’s retaliation would “have no red lines.”

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Senior commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Jabarri, issued a stern warning to President Trump. He publicly stated that the missiles used in Iran’s retaliatory actions today were merely “outdated stockpiles in warehouses,” implying that Iran’s true strategic cards have yet to be played. Jabarri further revealed that Iran is about to demonstrate and deploy a series of “mysterious weapons never before seen on the battlefield.” He emphasized that these advanced weapons’ power and technological level will far surpass external expectations, aiming to deliver a devastating blow to aggressors.

As of the 28th, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard said that missile attacks on U.S. military bases have resulted in at least 200 casualties.

The IRGC also stated that a radar deployed by the U.S. in Qatar has been “completely destroyed,” which was used to track ballistic missiles with a detection range of 5,000 kilometers.

The number of Iranian elementary school students killed in the attacks by the US and Israel has risen to 51, with 60 others injured.

Iranian President Pzehiziyan’s son, Yousuf Pzehiziyan, issued a statement via social media on February 28th, saying that his father and several Iranian officials are safe, and that the enemy’s “assassination attempts” have failed. Yousuf Pzehiziyan stated, “We are facing a prolonged conflict, which will be a war of attrition. Persistence and patience are crucial.”

Initial assessments from Israel suggest that the attempt to assassinate Iran’s top leader, Khamenei, and President Pzehiziyan, has failed.

Multiple regions and countries in the Middle East with U.S. military bases have been targeted by Iranian missile attacks.

Cryptocurrency Market Tumbles, Over 140,000 Liquidated

Due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, the cryptocurrency market has sharply declined. According to Securities Times and Broker China, 44 minutes after the conflict erupted, the total market cap of virtual currencies dropped from $2.24 trillion to $2.17 trillion, evaporating about $70 billion (nearly 480 billion RMB).

At the time of writing, Bitcoin fell over 3%, Ethereum and SOL dropped more than 4%, XRP declined over 5%, and Dogecoin fell more than 6%.

CoinGlass data shows that in the past 24 hours, over 140,000 traders were liquidated, a figure that previously exceeded 150,000.

Hormuz Strait Oil Tanker Transport Stalled

On February 28th, local time, real-time data from the international oil tanker traffic monitoring system shows that ships in the waters around the Strait of Hormuz have generally reduced their speed to zero, indicating that shipping in the area has come to a halt.

Several European governments have issued urgent directives to their flagged vessels en route, strictly prohibiting passage through the Strait of Hormuz to avoid safety risks amid the current escalation.

Additionally, due to increased regional security risks, many large oil companies and trading giants worldwide have officially announced suspensions of their oil and fuel ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

According to a report by Equirus Securities, after Israel’s attack on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz instantly became a focal point. If Tehran retaliates by disrupting this critical global energy chokepoint, crude oil prices could surge to $95–$110 per barrel.

Equirus warns that Iran’s production of about 3.3 million barrels per day (roughly 3% of global supply) is at the center of the current escalation. Assuming each 1% supply shock triggers a 3–5% price reaction, just the interruption of Iranian oil could lead to a 9–15% increase in crude prices.

At a baseline of $70 per barrel, this implies a rise of about $6–$11, pushing prices to the $76–$81 range solely due to direct supply loss.

However, the report emphasizes that markets do not price conflicts mechanically. If tensions threaten the passage through the Strait of Hormuz, risk premiums will become structural rather than proportional. Even a partial disruption could embed geopolitical risk premiums of $20–$40 per barrel, reopening the path to $95–$110 or higher.

How Much Will the Global Market Be Affected?

Following the US-Israel joint airstrikes on February 28th, risk aversion surged sharply. Coupled with Morgan Stanley’s long-term bullish outlook on gold prices, market analysts believe that if the conflict continues to escalate, gold could challenge the $5300–$5500 range in the short term.

In addition to gold, the US dollar and US Treasuries, due to their status as safe assets, are attracting global capital back, further pushing their prices higher. Investors flocked into US Treasuries on Friday, causing yields to decline across the board.

Futu Securities’ renowned macro strategist Michael Ball stated that if the US military’s goal is to overthrow Iran’s leadership, it will trigger sustained risk aversion and increased cross-asset volatility. Regime change could be a lengthy process involving comprehensive reassessment of governance, security, and oil policies. Even in a so-called orderly transition scenario, market sentiment would only recover once investors are confident that future oil supplies are relatively stable. The inflation data, which will accompany rising energy prices, will complicate the global central bank situation. During the early stages of the 2003 Iraq war, oil volatility spiked until the regime change stabilized and the global oil market adjusted (including the US shale revolution), after which prices stabilized again.

Acia Garcia-Erellero, Chief Economist for Asia-Pacific at Banque Commerciale Française, predicts that next Monday will see a “volatile and risk-averse” opening, with global stock markets potentially falling by 1–2% or more, US Treasury yields dropping 5–10 basis points, and oil prices rising 5–10%. She warns investors to “not bet heavily” and to wait for Iran’s response.