The truth about Polymarket traders' profits: Only 30% of users achieve positive returns

According to the latest statistics from data analysis firm defioasis.eth, the profit and loss situation of over 1.7 million trading addresses on the Polymarket prediction market is quite severe. About 70% of traders are in loss, with only around 30% of addresses showing positive returns. This data reveals the true profit status of prediction market users—very few succeed, while the vast majority suffer losses.

Top Winners Dominate Most Profits

Among the 30% of traders who are profitable, wealth distribution is highly uneven. The top 0.0385% of profitable addresses control over 70% of the total gains, amounting to $3.7 billion in profits. This means fewer than 600 top traders capture most of the market profits, demonstrating the power of the head effect. In contrast, medium-sized profitable traders are numerous but earn only modest gains.

Limited Earnings for Small and Medium Traders

Nearly 25% of addresses are in positive territory, but their profits are minimal, confined to the $0–1,000 range. Although these users successfully predicted market directions, their earnings account for less than 1% of total profits. This indicates that achieving significant profits on the Polymarket platform is extremely difficult, and most participants have limited earning potential.

Divergent Characteristics of Losing Users

Among the approximately 70% of addresses in loss, there is also a differentiated distribution. Over 63.5% of losing addresses have losses within $1,000, indicating that most users experience relatively small single-loss amounts. However, it is noteworthy that 149 addresses suffered losses exceeding $1 million, reflecting extreme cases of over-leverage or strategic errors by some traders.

It should be noted that the above statistics are based on realized profit and loss data and do not include floating open positions.