Global News | The three major U.S. stock indices all fell more than 1%, with a 77.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged

【U.S. Stock Indices】

On February 5th, Eastern Time (Thursday), the three major U.S. stock indices all fell more than 1%. The S&P 500 dropped 1.23% to 6,798.40; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.20% to 48,908.72; the Nasdaq declined 1.59% to 22,540.59.

【U.S. Bonds】

On February 5th, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.21%, and the 2-year Treasury yield, most sensitive to Federal Reserve policy rates, was 3.47%.

【Popular U.S. Stocks】

Among popular stocks, Nvidia fell 1.37%, Apple dropped 0.21%, Google Class C declined 0.60%, Google Class A fell 0.54%, Microsoft dropped 4.95%, Amazon declined 4.42%, TSMC rose 1.40%, Meta increased 0.18%, Tesla fell 2.17%, Super Micro Semiconductor dropped 3.84%, Intel declined 0.74%.

【Global Indices】

【Chinese Indices】

On February 4th, overnight Hang Seng Tech Index futures fell 1.81%, Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index declined 1.95%, FTSE China A50 Index rose 1.13%.

【Chinese Concept Stocks】

Among popular Chinese concept stocks, Tencent Holdings (HK) rose 0.09%, Alibaba fell 0.89%, Pinduoduo declined 0.60%, NetEase dropped 0.91%, Baidu increased 0.73%, Ctrip fell 0.07%, Li Auto rose 2.60%, Xpeng Motors increased 0.66%, NIO rose 6.08%.

【Forex and Commodities】

【Global News】

Fed Probability of Holding Rates Steady in March is 77.3%

According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in March is 22.7%, and the probability of holding rates steady is 77.3%. The chance of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by April is 36.2%, with a 58.1% chance of no change, and a 5.6% chance of a total 50 basis point cut. By June, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 50.2%. (Cailian Press)

Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index Closes Up 0.9%

The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed up 0.9%.

OpenAI and Ginkgo Collaborate to Reduce Protein Production Costs by 40%

OpenAI announced on X platform that, in collaboration with Ginkgo Bioworks, connecting GPT-5 with automated laboratories, they built a closed-loop system that reduces protein production costs by 40%. (Cailian Press)

Elon Musk Says SpaceX Is Not Developing a Phone

Elon Musk stated that SpaceX is not developing a phone. (Cailian Press)

OpenAI CEO Announces Release of GPT-5.3-Codex

The CEO of OpenAI announced the official release of GPT-5.3-Codex. It requires less than half the tokens to complete similar tasks compared to 5.2-Codex, with over 25% faster token processing speed. (Cailian Press)

OpenAI Launches New Platform to Help Companies Deploy “AI Colleagues”

OpenAI is launching a new platform to help companies deploy AI agents more easily. This is part of the company’s broader effort to strengthen its leadership in automating high-value tasks. Named Frontier, this product allows organizations to build and manage these AI tools, ensuring each agent has proper safety measures and data access. The goal is to simplify the deployment of AI agents—referred to as “AI colleagues” by OpenAI—and pave the way for large-scale adoption by enterprise clients. (Cailian Press)

Fed’s BOSTIC Says Excessively High Inflation Lasts Too Long

The Fed’s BOSTIC commented that excessively high inflation persists for too long. (Cailian Press)

Nvidia Delays New Gaming Chip Launch Due to Storage Chip Shortage

According to two informed sources, due to the ongoing global storage chip shortage triggered by the AI boom, Nvidia will not release new gaming graphics cards this year. This will be Nvidia’s first time in thirty years without launching a new gaming GPU. (Sina Tech)

European Central Bank Keeps Three Key Rates Unchanged

The European Central Bank maintained its three main interest rates, meeting market expectations for the fifth consecutive meeting. The deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate remain at 2%, 2.15%, and 2.40%, respectively. The ECB is committed to ensuring inflation stabilizes around 2% in the medium term.

UK 2-Year Government Bond Yield Slightly Falls Before Rate Decision

Ahead of the Bank of England’s rate decision, the UK 2-year government bond yield slightly declined. Markets expect the Bank of England to keep rates at 3.75%. Investors will watch for any signals of potential rate cuts in the coming months. According to Tradeweb, the 2-year UK bond yield fell 2 basis points to 3.708%.