#深度创作营

Last night, the air in Silicon Valley was filled with the smell of burning money.

$110 billion in funding, a post-investment valuation of $840 billion—this deep-water bomb dropped by OpenAI not only shattered the ceiling for private tech companies but also pushed the global AI race into an extremely brutal "folding space."

This is no longer a romantic story about tech startups but a game involving national fortunes, computing power dominance, and the future of civilization.

Hundreds of Billions Invested in AI, OpenAI Becomes the Most Expensive Experiment

In tech history, OpenAI has set a shocking financing record.

On February 27, OpenAI announced a successful $110 billion new round of funding at a valuation of $730 billion, directly pushing its post-investment valuation to $840 billion. Compared to the $40 billion raised last year, this round's scale has multiplied several times, setting a record for private tech company funding. Capital's bets on it have shifted from "betting on the future" to "locking in the future early."

What does $110 billion mean?

This number exceeds the entire annual GDP of countries like Kenya, Venezuela, Luxembourg, and Panama. Even Saudi Arabia, the global oil giant, has an annual GDP of about $1 trillion. One round of funding for OpenAI is roughly equivalent to one-tenth of Saudi Arabia's annual output.

This amount is approximately equal to Nvidia's total annual revenue, nearly half of SpaceX's current valuation, and is the sum of the funding rounds of internet giants like Uber, Didi, Alibaba, ByteDance, Tencent, Meituan, and others during the golden age of the internet.

In the AI landscape, a single financing scale of $110 billion is undoubtedly a watershed, changing the entire industry's fundraising game overnight. By 2025, total funding for AI startups surpassed $200 billion, hitting a record high, and OpenAI alone took more than half of that in just one night.

Such a scale of financing intensifies the arms race in AI. Industry leaders must follow with larger-scale funding or risk falling behind in the competition for computing power, models, and talent. However, expanding the funding scale also brings higher valuation pressures and performance expectations. When large amounts of capital are concentrated, the funding window will inevitably narrow sharply, reducing valuation negotiation space for small and medium-sized AI companies, extending survival cycles, increasing industry consolidation risks, and potentially leading to valuation bubbles, resource monopolies, and decreased innovation vitality.

From this perspective, when capital bets such a colossal amount, AI is no longer just the protagonist of technological narratives but has truly become the main asset in the capital era, turning into a battlefield for giant capital games.

The Big Three Dominate the Capital Gamble Around AGI

The major backers writing this $110 billion check are Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, pooling computing power, channels, and funds.

But this is not just a simple financing round. Rather than just financial infusion, it’s a strategic gamble centered on the prospects of AGI, deeply tied to technology, computing power, and commercial interests.

The most generous investor in this round is Amazon, which is both a significant investor in OpenAI and a long-term strategic partner.

Out of a total commitment of $50 billion, the first $15 billion has been confirmed, with the remaining $35 billion to be allocated over the coming months based on specific conditions. These conditions include achieving or reaching AGI milestones or advancing an IPO by the end of the year. Additionally, both parties signed an 8-year expansion agreement worth $100 billion.

This model of exchanging capital for future computing needs and technological priority, similar to OpenAI’s previous partnership with Microsoft, is noteworthy. OpenAI and Microsoft have special clauses: once AGI is achieved, Microsoft will lose access to related technology (Note: In the new agreement signed in 2025, Microsoft’s IP rights to models and products are extended until 2032).

SoftBank Group has committed $30 billion, to be paid in three installments in April, July, and October 2026. This staged arrangement is also seen as a risk hedge. SoftBank’s role in this round is not just about funding. Market sources say OpenAI expects to raise about $10 billion more from investors before March, including sovereign wealth funds and investment institutions, potentially boosting its overall valuation to $850 billion. These potential investors are likely to enter through SoftBank as a bridge.

SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son has repeatedly bet on AI in recent years, publicly declaring that "the AI revolution is the most exciting and dynamic frontier trend of the future." At the end of 2024, Son visited Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate, promising to invest $100 billion in the US, and last year announced participation in the "Stargate" project, a $500 billion AI infrastructure investment in the US, serving as chairman. SoftBank is responsible for financial obligations, while OpenAI handles operations. To support OpenAI, Son even sold Nvidia stocks "tearfully" last year, using the proceeds for additional investments in OpenAI, making SoftBank one of its largest external investors.

Nvidia, which had long been anticipated, contributed $30 billion this time, replacing the $100 billion long-term cooperation commitment made last year, and allowing OpenAI to preempt Nvidia’s capacity, building an exclusive "internal cycle" system. Outside competitors face a waitlist for graphics cards until 2030 just to buy hardware.

This cycle is viewed as a typical vendor financing model—tech giants locking in long-term business through capital binding. In this AI race, capital is no longer just a financial tool but a chip to lock in computing resources and seize discourse power.

Technology and Capital Race, IPO Consideration at the Right Moment

Behind the massive capital injection is not only a collective bet on the AGI track but also recognition of OpenAI’s business growth.

According to official disclosures, OpenAI’s flagship product ChatGPT currently has over 900 million weekly active users, up from around 200 million 18 months ago; individual subscription users have surpassed 50 million, a record high, with a paid penetration rate over 5%; paid commercial users exceed 9 million, including many enterprises and government agencies using ChatGPT or building products based on OpenAI API.

However, behind rapid growth is the ever-expanding cash burn. In 2025, OpenAI’s revenue was about $13 billion, with cash expenses of $8 billion, meaning it burns approximately $0.62 of cash for every dollar earned. According to The Information, internal forecasts disclosed to investors show that by the end of 2029, cumulative cash consumption will reach $115 billion, with profitability not expected until 2030. Meanwhile, OpenAI recently disclosed plans to invest about $600 billion in computing infrastructure by 2030.

This means that if profitability cannot be achieved quickly, this staggering "burn rate" will force OpenAI to rely on continuous capital infusion to survive.

More critically, OpenAI’s once-impregnable moat is beginning to loosen.

According to data from mobile analytics firm Apptopia, ChatGPT’s market share has fallen from 69.1% in January 2025 to 45.3% in 2026. During the same period, Google Gemini’s chatbot market share rose from 14.7% to 25.2%; Elon Musk’s Grok increased to 15.2%, from just 1.6% last year.

Profitability issues and fierce competitors await resolution, and an IPO may become OpenAI’s "lifeline."

Currently, OpenAI’s IPO timetable is approaching. The Wall Street Journal recently cited sources saying OpenAI is preparing for a Q4 2026 listing and has engaged with Wall Street investment banks, recruiting a chief accounting officer and investor relations head. Its founder, Sam Altman, recently disclosed that he will consider going public at the right time. If successful, this would be one of the most significant tech IPOs of 2026.

This means Sam Altman is blindly rushing on the IPO tightrope. It’s not just a race of technology but a high-stakes sprint with capital patience.

That IPO at the end of the year may mark the peak of this AI bubble or the true beginning of the AGI era. But before that, everyone is holding their breath at this most expensive gambling table, waiting for the cards to be revealed.