War alert sounds! The US-Iran conflict sparks global panic, Bitcoin drops below 64,000. How much more terrifying is this black swan event?

Brothers, something big just happened again. Big Beautiful started attacking Iran. Just a second ago, social media was still praising Iran for backing down and handing over nuclear materials, saying peace was coming. But in the next moment, everything flipped—Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, and Big Beautiful also started fighting back, a joint operation with a clear front.**

The U.S. side even admits: this attack is much larger than last year’s. Israel is more direct: a four-day intensive assault in the first phase. Brothers, do you understand? It means a blitzkrieg—quick, decisive, no prolonged conflict.

As soon as this news broke, the global markets immediately crashed. U.S. stocks fell first, gold and oil prices surged, Bitcoin and Ethereum plunged in a big red candle. Over the weekend, Bitcoin briefly broke 64,000, dropping to a low of 63,500, a decline of over 6%. Ethereum fared even worse, dropping to 1,850, a nearly 9% daily drop, leaving everyone stunned.

Even more painful are the derivatives: nearly $500 million in liquidations within 24 hours, over 150,000 forced liquidations, 90% of which were long positions.

One liquidation hit $11.17 million. In this kind of market, leverage is basically a death sentence.

Now, here’s the key point from the big players: this sell-off isn’t just a temporary technical failure; it’s an emotional outburst. Why did it fall so hard? Here are a few reasons:

First, the Middle East conflict caused funds to flee to safe assets, killing risk assets first. Then, Big Beautiful’s January PPI exceeded expectations, and both non-farm payroll and CPI data were strong. The Fed’s rate cut expectations were pushed back significantly. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit 4.06%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin spot ETFs have been net outflows for several months—$3.5 billion in January alone, over $3.7 billion in four weeks. Harvard and other institutions reduced their holdings of Bitcoin by 21%. With macro fundamentals weakening, rate hike expectations fading, and war breaking out, it’s a perfect storm. The key support levels broke, and automated stop-loss orders triggered, causing a vicious cycle of falling and liquidations.

After this sharp decline, the likely scenario is to first wipe out leverage and then rebound to restore sentiment. Of course, we’ll see how this plays out by next Monday, then expect a period of oscillation and consolidation. Currently, Bitcoin is around 63,700, and the downtrend isn’t over yet. Although 62,500 is a support level, if the US-Iran conflict escalates further, Bitcoin could break below 62,000 and test the 60,000 support. The most probable outcome is that if Bitcoin drops near 60,000, Ethereum will also test the critical 1,800 level. The key point now is: if the conflict is a short-term blitzkrieg, panic usually peaks within 1–3 days, then slowly recovers. But if it turns into a full-scale war with blockade of shipping lanes, that’s a different story altogether.

The current strategy from the big players is: control risk first, then look for opportunities!

Although shorting now could still bring profits, it’s important to avoid high leverage and heavy positions. If you’ve been following my articles since the 25th, you know that the rebound was a trap—shorts are not done yet! From the beginning, I’ve maintained a bearish trend, especially when the market rebounded about 10% to near 70,000. I repeatedly emphasized a high-short strategy and provided specific entry points. Despite the black swan of war, the overall trend still aligned with my expectations.

I share this not to boast about my skills but because I see too many naive traders rushing in with dreams of quick riches, trading blindly without logic or conviction, chasing highs and selling lows, following the crowd, and eventually losing everything. It’s heartbreaking.

Seeing these situations only strengthens my resolve to write and share insights. I know how hard it is for many crypto friends—some earn their living in factories, some work hard delivering food every day, and some even borrowed money to trade. Watching these hard-earned funds be mercilessly taken by the market is truly painful. If my analysis can help even a small part of them avoid losses, I’ll feel it’s all worth it and very meaningful.

If you’ve read this far and feel that my articles are helpful, I hope you can follow or give a like. As the saying goes, giving a rose leaves fragrance in your hand; a kind heart blooms like a lotus, bringing blessings. Your small gesture can help spread this message further. That’s all for today. Remember: when others panic, don’t follow. Not losing is winning; surviving is the way to have more to eat.

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