Polymarket's massive USD bets reveal Bitcoin market divergence

OnchainDetective · 2026-02-28T04:06:26+00:00

Polymarket has seen $28 million in bets on Bitcoin's future movement. Data shows that 46% of investors are bearish, and market sentiment is highly polarized, but excessive one-sidedness could lead to a counter-movement. Regardless of predictions, fund management and risk control are always key to ensuring the safety of principal.

OnchainDetective

2026-02-28 04:06:26

Abstract generation in progress

A well-known prediction market, Polymarket, has seen a $28 million hedge play, with over 200 million RMB in real money betting on Bitcoin’s future trend. What market signals are hidden behind this data?

$28 Million Hedge: Market Sentiment and Capital Battle

This is not just a prediction; it’s a market experiment where funds are used to vote. On Polymarket, investors directly bet on Bitcoin’s movement with USD, and each bet reflects genuine expectations for the future. When a single event attracts over $28 million in bets, it indicates a real division in market sentiment.

Betting Data Reveals: True Expectations of Bulls and Bears

Behind these figures is the most honest market expression—46% of funds bet on a significant Bitcoin correction, 18% are more bearish expecting lower prices, while only 7% are bullish. This distribution shows the market is highly divided, with bearish sentiment clearly dominant.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin hovers around $95,000, with $90,000 serving as a key psychological support level. If it falls below this, the next support could be around $85,000.

One-Sided Prediction Markets ≠ Absolute Trends — How to Interpret Market Signals

Historical experience shows that when prediction markets become overly one-sided, reversals often follow. While these data reflect current market expectations, blindly trusting their forecasts carries risks. Market makers often counteract extreme polarization, indicating that prediction market data should be combined with other factors for comprehensive analysis.

Risk Warning: Predictions Are Not Certainties — Capital Management Is Key

No matter how skewed the data on Polymarket, one truth remains: predictions are ultimately guesses, and markets are always uncertain. Short-term traders should monitor key levels closely, trade quickly, and avoid greed; medium- and long-term investors can consider staggered buying at lows. Most importantly, no prediction should justify heavy positions—risk control is always the top priority, protecting your principal is the foundation of all trading.

Whether priced in USD or RMB, investing fundamentally involves taking risks for potential returns, provided your capital can withstand those risks.

BTC-5.6%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.